Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 22, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fd053c2e7b3e3de487ffe0550863ada85839d731729d61642a20ae89a827bf5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,867 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 6c | 5,839$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.69 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 4,021$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked No | 0c | 3,415$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes | 77c | 2,998$2,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.72 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9507…7b04backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 63c | 798.91$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.91 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 735.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 16c | 700.98$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.03 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 2c | 695.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…8aaabacked No | 3c | 623.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3167…f43cbacked No | 49c | 579.28$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.89 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0848…ffbebacked Yes | 49c | 522.3$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.08 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b5…4c72backed Yes | 72c | 433.54$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.05 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | +10.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 26c | 399.98$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.19 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x04bd…f2f3backed No | 27c | 370$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.2 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 31c | 320$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf22…5473backed No | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…1af2backed No | 47c | 197.86$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.34 | 164 | 33.5%55 W · 109 L | -19.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9d31backed No | 54c | 190$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.2 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 19c | 181.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0202…55b0backed No | 47c | 163.86$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes | 61c | 144.38$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.7 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc207…b24ebacked No | 35c | 140.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 46c | 140$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.9 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…2fe9backed Yes | 42c | 118.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.6 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 43c | 104$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6889…935bbacked No | 50c | 100.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a7…6a27backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x373c…3f66backed No | 11c | 94.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 36c | 90.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed No | 12c | 88.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 12c | 88.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 46c | 87.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 75.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…05adbacked No | 59c | 70.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed No | 21c | 58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x058b…b5ebbacked Yes | 46c | 54.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c6…38b6backed Yes | 49c | 46.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5eb…5f89backed Yes | 49c | 41.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +41.8wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 78+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x6721…d75bbacked No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed Yes | 64c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed Yes | 56c | 37.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 42c | 34.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 124 | 33.1%41 W · 83 L | -12.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31e6…0f21backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16a3…a5f1backed Yes | 53c | 27.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7514…08d2backed No | 57c | 19.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…2c93backed No | 60c | 19.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 88 | 67%59 W · 29 L | +15.2wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +72%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 22, 2026?this page
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 21, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 27, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.