Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 23, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc169ca8e998ea2531440c5c10258b77e22680ce701f9f46edec84903a16cbfb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,182
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,537
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,182 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 1c | 2,068$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06d0…254fbacked Yes | 25c | 794.97$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 5c | 653.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…141abacked Yes | 18c | 540$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.2 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…97e9backed Yes | 59c | 400$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.36 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 110 | 16.4%18 W · 92 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 48c | 372.63$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.53 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0848…ffbebacked Yes | 53c | 323.6$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.87 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 19c | 285.43$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.49 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 16c | 251.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 13c | 227$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…e7ebbacked No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes | 33c | 199.96$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 24c | 149.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 73c | 149.32$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.55 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8d…31e4backed No | 40c | 138.54$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.13 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c6…38b6backed Yes | 43c | 136.04$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.93 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…5909backed Yes | 41c | 131.44$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bae…1574backed Yes | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…2c93backed No | 50c | 113.27$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.87 | 88 | 67%59 W · 29 L | +15.2wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +72%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0202…55b0backed No | 57c | 105.61$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.61 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 52c | 105$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.7 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 104.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 52c | 103.88$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.88 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc207…b24ebacked No | 68c | 102.66$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…2fe9backed Yes | 49c | 102.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…0a63backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 104 | 28.8%30 W · 74 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c7…0e95backed No | 50c | 96$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd113…7fe7backed Yes | 60c | 95$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.9 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf75…3880backed Yes | 23c | 94.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 133 | 21.8%29 W · 104 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x058b…b5ebbacked Yes | 54c | 93.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…25f1backed No | 61c | 81.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.61 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaffb…c689backed No | 74c | 79$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…05adbacked No | 66c | 75.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 64c | 72.22$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 41c | 70.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 68.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9986…27aebacked Yes | 59c | 67.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.83 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…b919backed Yes | 16c | 66.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6af…532dbacked Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 39c | 59.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 40c | 49.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 103 | 41.7%43 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed Yes | 34c | 42.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373c…3f66backed No | 53c | 38.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee3…0924backed Yes | 60c | 38.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57dd…c41ebacked No | 51c | 36.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked No | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +9.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 69c | 20.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 78c | 19.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 247 | 59.1%146 W · 101 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 23, 2026?this page
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 21, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 27, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.