Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 27, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e6aada1d8863bfbfccd1fa509ba5fd9bcd9fd087b729765142a128b953cc905
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,977
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5fdc…2e6ebacked Yes | 4c | 3,569$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91c5…3b17backed Yes | 3c | 2,658$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb364…d438backed Yes | 4c | 2,136$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…f8c0backed Yes | 3c | 1,901$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17b7…0cc7backed Yes | 4c | 1,862$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21a9…ec02backed Yes | 4c | 1,816$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x465e…9692backed Yes | 4c | 1,492$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c6…1206backed Yes | 4c | 1,365$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93b8…51f2backed Yes | 3c | 1,352$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…683abacked Yes | 3c | 1,259$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb235…5d12backed Yes | 3c | 1,241$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…f036backed Yes | 3c | 1,156$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x494c…8df5backed Yes | 4c | 1,144$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7f…088ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,040$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0da8…9506backed Yes | 4c | 1,017$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13ff…6ec1backed Yes | 3c | 864$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8f…a08ebacked Yes | 3c | 798$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…1d9bbacked Yes | 3c | 784$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 16c | 689.83$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.74 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e79…c0f1backed Yes | 4c | 595$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadf7…13eabacked Yes | 3c | 545$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…ef6abacked Yes | 3c | 545$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc7…27bbbacked Yes | 4c | 540$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…8583backed Yes | 4c | 515$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a0…c022backed Yes | 3c | 507$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…4aedbacked Yes | 3c | 500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…31d4backed Yes | 40c | 497.06$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 102 | 26.5%27 W · 75 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b8…3fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 486$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…da2abacked Yes | 3c | 456$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9753…5debbacked Yes | 3c | 440$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 437.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.39 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb306…9a37backed No | 71c | 393.58$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb442…bed7backed No | 73c | 368.84$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.84 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7585…9e32backed Yes | 4c | 355$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x857f…039fbacked Yes | 5c | 299.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked Yes | 5c | 292.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 110 | 16.4%18 W · 92 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6712…467bbacked Yes | 8c | 282.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 10c | 245.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 8c | 243.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0848…ffbebacked Yes | 38c | 234.04$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked No | 71c | 210.58$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.94 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked Yes | 9c | 197$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc341…9a9fbacked No | 73c | 191.11$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +7.3wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked Yes | 18c | 167.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed No | 60c | 152$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 37c | 151.96$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.23 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…2fe9backed Yes | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed Yes | 23c | 130.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…8416backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8903…0dc2backed Yes | 30c | 122.66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…0a63backed Yes | 36c | 107.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 104 | 28.8%30 W · 74 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 21c | 104.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9777…3761backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e34…63f7backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…0ed9backed Yes | 20c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 36c | 99.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xccb3…2eadbacked No | 65c | 99.6$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 125 | 44%55 W · 70 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…4a86backed Yes | 17c | 83.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x197d…7cffbacked Yes | 23c | 65.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…eda0backed Yes | 30c | 65.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…3377backed Yes | 40c | 58.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed Yes | 22c | 57.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0202…55b0backed No | 79c | 49.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…8bdebacked Yes | 35c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 39cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c6…38b6backed Yes | 38c | 41.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x433d…a85abacked No | 59c | 40.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272f…164fbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +279.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 71c | 39.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 75c | 38.76$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 77cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dcc…00c9backed No | 64c | 35.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…1af2backed No | 66c | 30.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 164 | 33.5%55 W · 109 L | -19.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f0…d8a0backed No | 79c | 21.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 27, 2026?this page
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 21, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 29, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.