TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc341…9a9f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
87
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Middle East, grading 62 out of 100 (+0.11 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 62 out of 100; worst Commodities at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2026, EDT4161%25 W · 16 L+7.3wins+0.18per pick43cpaid+81.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
Middle East — the 41 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+187.3%+$280.92
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+32.2%+$80.54
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+57.7%+$86.57
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+35.8%+$178.95
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$103.03
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+129.8%+$135.93
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$207.14
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$465Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$465
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$126.41
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$18.61
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$379Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$378.85
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.5
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+94.4%+$122.7
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$145.06
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$634Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+64.4%+$408.41
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$759Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+70%+$530.78
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$780Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$780
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$493Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+32%+$157.88
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+1,835.8%+$330.63
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$459Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+125.2%+$574.48
Showing 25 of 41 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT3551.4%18 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+39.9%+$31.8
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$115
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$61.11
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$275Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+43.3%+$119
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.57
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$66.67
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$520Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$520
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$355Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+48.1%+$170.8
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.92
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+29.8%+$44.64
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$115
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$65
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$115
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$375Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+34.8%+$130.32
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$231Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+75.7%+$174.62
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$450Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+26.2%+$117.82
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$235Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+36.7%+$86.32
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$55
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$65
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+45.3%+$36.22
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$666Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+36.9%+$245.64
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$246Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+25%+$61.5
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NVIDIA reach $200 in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+25.1%+$25.08
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 28, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.