Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf12997218083287cdfb5a76dd984f70c90d0bcc75d4d0fa50b4e92c3b763b1bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,674
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,674 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x122c…b48fbacked Yes | 59c | 403.01$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed No | 61c | 298.83$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.26 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc73d…565abacked Yes | 40c | 248.74$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.31 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 246.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 11c | 219.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b35…a2cabacked Yes | 45c | 217.63$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 185.67$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.05 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 171.59$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.67 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d4…7a4ebacked Yes | 8c | 143.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 60c | 142.13$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.35 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 32c | 132.44$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.41 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 123.9$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.44 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…f3b4backed Yes | 44c | 119.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 13c | 117.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 15c | 113.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa654…58c9backed Yes | 54c | 106.59$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.21 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 57c | 103.48$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e96…9332backed Yes | 32c | 102.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…2420backed Yes | 41c | 99.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…1831backed Yes | 48c | 97.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.47 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x327d…977bbacked Yes | 38c | 97.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 27c | 95.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 52c | 95.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.7 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 26c | 79.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 22c | 76.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 52c | 72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 33c | 69.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 40c | 67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 49c | 64.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…5cb9backed Yes | 44c | 61.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f59…9e40backed Yes | 24c | 61.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3f…f5e8backed Yes | 44c | 60.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 46c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed No | 63c | 53.11$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62b8…2cc9backed Yes | 47c | 52.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 52.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 71c | 50.4$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 39c | 48.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 52c | 45.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc341…9a9fbacked Yes | 55c | 45.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82bc…7a78backed Yes | 28c | 45.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 65c | 44.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 36c | 41.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x148f…2f09backed Yes | 39c | 39.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 57c | 33.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 33c | 31.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd561…d81dbacked Yes | 39c | 30.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed No | 47c | 30.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 62c | 29.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe058…cf72backed Yes | 41c | 28.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 38c | 28.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 57c | 26.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddc…a869backed No | 60c | 25.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x318b…d827backed No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.3wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8d56…92e6backed Yes | 50c | 25.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a1…3855backed No | 64c | 25.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 47c | 24.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 48c | 23.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37d3…4e40backed No | 71c | 21.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0005…d5fdbacked Yes | 55c | 20.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 62c | 17.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on April 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.