Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a99865459d33d39e83278ea37ce733d2b02fbb3e37ea172d35cf4e356643776
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,157
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,680
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,157 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 7c | 999.98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…4d2bbacked Yes | 54c | 887.44$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.6 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…b48fbacked Yes | 76c | 576.02$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee38…fd31backed No | 54c | 326.48$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.05 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 302.6$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 13c | 302.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 33c | 244.71$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.81 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 226.51$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 9c | 186.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 184.51$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 66c | 176.19$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.62 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 174.66$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.68 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked Yes | 31c | 161.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 49c | 152.78$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.46 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff65…f1cdbacked No | 11c | 141.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 51c | 136.49$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.22 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfedf…ee2abacked Yes | 34c | 135.1$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.54 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 48c | 134.04$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.84 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 25c | 133.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…f3b4backed Yes | 39c | 119.11$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked No | 41c | 114.86$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09d4…7a4ebacked No | 9c | 113.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc73d…565abacked Yes | 38c | 112.85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.35 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 66c | 96.21$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.73 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 36c | 95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 92.25$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.94 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed No | 38c | 91.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 35c | 83.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.79 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 15c | 78.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 23c | 78.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.26 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 63c | 77.64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 37c | 75.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b33…044ebacked No | 67c | 72.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 33c | 68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.38 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 65c | 64.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 33c | 64.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 37c | 63.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 67c | 62.72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 39c | 61.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 33c | 59.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 33c | 55.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe21…f884backed Yes | 34c | 55.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 34c | 55.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 34c | 54.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b28…d9c1backed No | 66c | 53.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbea…76d0backed Yes | 63c | 53.71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +6.0wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 50.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.68 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x321f…6100backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 58c | 49.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x327d…977bbacked Yes | 39c | 49.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 47.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 43c | 46.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 45.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8205…66bdbacked No | 67c | 43.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec3f…f5e8backed Yes | 34c | 42.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa19b…3e59backed Yes | 34c | 41.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 74c | 40.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x290c…ab10backed Yes | 35c | 40.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b27…7d50backed No | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -5.5wins | -0.24per pick | 37cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 69c | 37.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 45c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed No | 59c | 34.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcafd…b861backed No | 71c | 33.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 72 | 72.2%52 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1377…6aadbacked Yes | 44c | 32.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 38c | 31.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed No | 69c | 30.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 37c | 29.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29ad…8d47backed Yes | 68c | 28.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed No | 65c | 26.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 66c | 26.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 62c | 25.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 62c | 23.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…d067backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 64c | 18.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 65c | 18.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb672…6914backed Yes | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.