TailMyPicks
Market

Commodities · resolved market

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$914,991
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,013,887

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $914,991 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 168 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe734…4f0cbacked Yes5c75,320$3,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,434.1810930.3%33 W · 76 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-33.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked Yes7c67,602$4,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,607.136521.5%14 W · 51 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes2c24,000$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39611921%25 W · 94 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-51.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8f5…3766backed Yes2c23,384$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.531540%6 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+52.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe392…c023backed Yes1c22,618$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.3728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick20cpaid-53.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes4c17,239$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745.0332023.4%75 W · 245 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes9c12,290$1,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,045.376325.4%16 W · 47 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-28.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3db…0f98backed Yes12c10,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2001127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-60.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d4b…07cbbacked Yes10c10,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72a0…c059backed Yes5c9,963$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.976346%29 W · 34 L+7.0wins+0.11per pick35cpaid-2.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6fb1…3b4fbacked Yes2c8,008$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.13128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74af…85ddbacked Yes9c6,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes23c5,875$1,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,321.897847.4%37 W · 41 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x492f…8144backed Yes11c5,601$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.272425%6 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c5,199$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.611,0329.3%96 W · 936 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-54.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x718e…3ef9backed Yes4c5,146$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.241127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick17cpaid-42.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8361…8e6dbacked Yes2c5,076$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.8580%0 W · 58 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1104…002abacked Yes5c4,707$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.651662.5%10 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.21per pick42cpaid+27%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaa6f…1dfebacked Yes13c4,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.9970%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes1c3,628$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.85474.3%2 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+41.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8d6…e410backed Yes22c3,489$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.78540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-39.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9592…a7b8backed Yes11c3,433$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3932638.5%10 W · 16 L+4.6wins+0.18per pick21cpaid+27.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1284…9b8abacked Yes2c3,263$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.17520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick5cpaid+73.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b26…b3f6backed Yes25c3,235$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800110%0 W · 11 L-3.8wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc430…1ebfbacked Yes12c3,088$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41dd…6e71backed Yes9c2,900$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2661258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick38cpaid+14.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7144…6624backed Yes2c2,800$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.6160%0 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb225…d4a1backed Yes4c2,603$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid+84.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9aea…b686backed No73c2,500$1,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.492450%12 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+15.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e2c…bd51backed No80c2,341$1,867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.974360.5%26 W · 17 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x270b…e632backed Yes5c2,312$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.784219%8 W · 34 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd599…c994backed Yes8c2,277$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9afc…314bbacked Yes1c2,207$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.18230%0 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c62…84fcbacked Yes15c2,112$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.43728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick17cpaid-16.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes5c2,024$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.6112126.4%32 W · 89 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-29.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1881…edd9backed Yes2c1,855$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302910.3%3 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-41%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c1,852$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.362221.4%3 W · 219 L-0.4wins0.00per pick2cpaid+28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2b8…8cf5backed Yes5c1,835$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-72.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes12c1,755$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.167812.8%10 W · 68 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-69.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa747…486fbacked Yes25c1,588$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda63…a0b1backed Yes12c1,533$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1901010%1 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-74.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33c1…e8b3backed Yes12c1,500$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.52313%3 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes16c1,500$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.869914.1%14 W · 85 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-49.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fa1…1f74backed Yes4c1,500$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571020%2 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-56.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6e9…0741backed No79c1,492$1,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.77742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick61cpaid-44.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec29…9d6fbacked Yes21c1,422$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1da7…0e20backed Yes2c1,326$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211225%3 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid-35%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7607…c74bbacked Yes3c1,294$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41313.2%1 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick12cpaid-91.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c97…8be7backed Yes2c1,284$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.891711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-76.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x978e…80bcbacked Yes1c1,226$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.544325.6%11 W · 32 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb84c…e169backed Yes4c1,173$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.034351.2%22 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+17.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1e2…666dbacked Yes5c1,118$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.74229.1%2 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+26.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d05…3171backed Yes2c1,107$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes5c1,104$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.09932.2%2 W · 91 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-86%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked Yes1c1,100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.614849.3%73 W · 75 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54e4…b74dbacked Yes6c1,092$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.07911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-53.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa540…0b43backed Yes11c1,081$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.311,28624.2%311 W · 975 L-58.4wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-45%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Yes24c1,080$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.55812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf452…c0efbacked Yes1c1,002$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6170%0 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f7…e19fbacked Yes13c1,000$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1293920.5%8 W · 31 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-36.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes2c999.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172437.5%9 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+321.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes2c948.6$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.012711.1%3 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick15cpaid+120.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fe2…bb3fbacked Yes4c781.75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.971127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick15cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd988…fd9dbacked Yes3c748.92$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.311020%2 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick7cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x791d…d914backed Yes5c734$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.87837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1f7…c8e4backed Yes13c721.26$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.571330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-48.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb04e…18fabacked Yes7c706.06$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.35616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes4c705.75$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.26840%0 W · 84 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9849…2ee5backed Yes17c691.79$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.012416.7%4 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa26f…e9bfbacked Yes5c680.2$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.19922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick14cpaid-33.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbec8…d919backed Yes3c638.55$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick25cpaid+197.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes3c627.39$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2320624.8%51 W · 155 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x756e…648abacked Yes4c625.15$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.64333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-40%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8794…fa1bbacked Yes7c625.1$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.740%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6449…5b1fbacked Yes2c619.37$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes2c615.13$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.319535.4%69 W · 126 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefc8…c987backed Yes8c609.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x371c…c236backed Yes8c608.16$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.692152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick41cpaid-3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x83d7…e8babacked Yes8c591.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc341…9a9fbacked Yes20c566.3$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1153551.4%18 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x969f…4d55backed No78c562.27$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.4411650.9%59 W · 57 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-2.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc1a9…d211backed Yes11c539.99$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.663923.1%9 W · 30 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick31cpaid+19.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x27e9…39b2backed Yes2c536.36$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe61a…ab8abacked Yes19c504.35$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.84825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-63.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes8c500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4011133.3%37 W · 74 L-8.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-31%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes3c491.04$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.77335.6%26 W · 47 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe67c…2f79backed Yes3c479.41$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.17425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick4cpaid+96.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c7a…6875backed Yes18c477.49$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.352711.1%3 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-65.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes3c461.95$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.571735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid+20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x404e…703bbacked Yes4c454.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20560%3 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.47per pick13cpaid+258%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x36da…8218backed Yes7c449.92$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.263112.9%4 W · 27 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick23cpaid+111.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes8c449.73$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.496114.8%9 W · 52 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x073e…8416backed Yes3c435.22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.436526.2%17 W · 48 L-6.9wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-28.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1cef…759ebacked Yes5c417.89$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4450%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x196e…1b86backed Yes4c369.9$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1590%0 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x061e…5ab8backed Yes14c361.09$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x845e…d22bbacked Yes5c359.6$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.461442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-17.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9725…46d0backed Yes6c347.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick23cpaid-34.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes10c304.37$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.175942.4%25 W · 34 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7690…c04fbacked Yes6c302.96$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181040%4 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-19.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.