Commodities · resolved market
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1079c44973db509356875db06aa3b585598068bdc5ff0673584f10dc3255b80a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,735
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,735 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8ef…e9fcbacked No | 0c | 25,847$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa2…1c9abacked No | 11c | 3,722$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x492f…8144backed No | 20c | 2,022$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 119 | 21%25 W · 94 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaff…688cbacked No | 1c | 1,812$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff3…8c08backed No | 21c | 1,393$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.02 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 17c | 1,199$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.49 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 75c | 1,149$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.54 | 305 | 34.8%106 W · 199 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb12…d1b3backed No | 2c | 1,099$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed No | 15c | 767$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.76 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 77c | 570.77$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.07 | 1,265 | 24.5%310 W · 955 L | -56.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…7afebacked No | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked No | 16c | 499.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +9.7wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x783d…9a35backed Yes | 80c | 272.4$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.85 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 62cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed No | 18c | 250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +111.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 19c | 248$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Yes | 76c | 243.77$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34e7…8821backed No | 25c | 219.08$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9181…64acbacked No | 19c | 208.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ff…3c75backed No | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16f1…e1d1backed No | 18c | 183.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked No | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x403f…94f1backed No | 22c | 177.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 16c | 138.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +120.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…d92dbacked No | 15c | 137.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3458…b5a7backed Yes | 80c | 125.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 16c | 117.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a88…7190backed No | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed No | 10c | 102.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc7…23f9backed No | 26c | 101.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…2566backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +137.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe61a…ab8abacked Yes | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x367e…b15ebacked No | 22c | 99.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1330…b4b5backed No | 24c | 79.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 22c | 46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 77c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 1,045 | 34.6%362 W · 683 L | -93.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 76c | 22.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 119 | 29.4%35 W · 84 L | -18.7wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…4960backed Yes | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…c84cbacked Yes | 77c | 15.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in July?this page
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in July?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in July?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in July?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $70 in July?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in July?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $55 in July?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in July?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in July?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in July?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.