Commodities · resolved market
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54dced78ab7d57eff695ff55c7c5bd6a5ef851038e74567626c79d579272dcf0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $177,778
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $165,659
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $177,778 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe734…4f0cbacked Yes | 3c | 26,379$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689 | 109 | 30.3%33 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 6c | 13,628$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.2 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 3c | 5,614$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.49 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…00c9backed Yes | 7c | 5,500$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 4,790$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.88 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 6c | 4,279$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.96 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6449…5b1fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,962$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 3,682$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.63 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 1c | 3,171$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 1c | 3,083$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8251…879dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,716$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…1f74backed Yes | 5c | 2,500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7c…c37bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,461$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.38 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,406$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9afc…314bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,102$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 6c | 2,040$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.38 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…1131backed Yes | 1c | 1,900$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e62…c577backed Yes | 4c | 1,762$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.51 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 1,582$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,149$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7be4…8477backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6339…ad29backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 4c | 931.05$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Yes | 3c | 900$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 2c | 830.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 6c | 780.94$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 3c | 621$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 2c | 497.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 121 | 26.4%32 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 3c | 483.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 199 | 23.1%46 W · 153 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38bf…28e2backed Yes | 5c | 466.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e2…666dbacked Yes | 3c | 410.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Yes | 3c | 385.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…0e21backed Yes | 6c | 300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 6c | 261.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a88…7190backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x235b…db92backed Yes | 9c | 214.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in July?this page
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in July?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in July?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in July?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $70 in July?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in July?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $55 in July?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in July?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in July?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in July?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.