Commodities · resolved market
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $55 in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74d17f5d49e264bafc2b6b1cd66837e9e2fc17206acbbea51b7b227217a2325f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $274,836
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $307,565
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $274,836 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe734…4f0cbacked Yes | 3c | 80,039$2,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,153.02 | 109 | 30.3%33 W · 76 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72a0…c059backed Yes | 1c | 12,218$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.54 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +7.0wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6339…ad29backed Yes | 0c | 9,052$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 7,282$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.14 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8251…879dbacked Yes | 5c | 6,693$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.2 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x058d…bbabbacked Yes | 2c | 4,484$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 3c | 4,380$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.51 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8888…0b39backed Yes | 4c | 3,446$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 2,817$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 2c | 2,136$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.69 | 1,265 | 24.5%310 W · 955 L | -56.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x613b…fdffbacked Yes | 2c | 2,015$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.13 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccf…cd14backed Yes | 5c | 1,691$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.72 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 2c | 1,555$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 305 | 34.8%106 W · 199 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd890…0bd3backed Yes | 3c | 1,534$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 3c | 1,188$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 121 | 26.4%32 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…bd51backed Yes | 2c | 1,115$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc18b…3917backed Yes | 3c | 1,100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 893.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x638e…2540backed Yes | 6c | 831.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 800$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38bf…28e2backed Yes | 3c | 795.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 3c | 775$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed Yes | 4c | 700$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x399b…35cdbacked Yes | 3c | 499.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4930…82abbacked Yes | 3c | 485$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 285.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5073…16a7backed Yes | 5c | 228.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $55 in July?this page
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in July?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in July?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in July?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $70 in July?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in July?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in July?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?No won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in July?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in July?Yes won
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in July?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.