TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$405,887
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$388,876

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $405,887 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe734…4f0cbacked Yes10c74,892$7,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,342.0110930.3%33 W · 76 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-33.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc438…3ae6backed Yes19c15,000$2,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,829.571163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick57cpaid-12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5652…00c9backed Yes9c8,789$818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$818.321145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick35cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes11c7,186$783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7837335.6%26 W · 47 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes13c6,760$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.17526.7%20 W · 55 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick28cpaid+29.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…1ebdbacked Yes28c5,866$1,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,615.12333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-47.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes4c5,424$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.8220624.8%51 W · 155 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes9c4,000$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3486325.4%16 W · 47 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-28.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0947…a830backed Yes12c3,962$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.57944.4%4 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.26per pick18cpaid+94.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x54e4…b74dbacked Yes9c3,496$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.8880%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41f3…844ebacked Yes12c2,950$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.1530738.8%119 W · 188 L+20.1wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+14.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8251…879dbacked Yes15c2,840$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.886631.8%21 W · 45 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes12c2,754$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.477812.8%10 W · 68 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-69.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe721…b8a9backed Yes12c2,608$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed Yes21c2,566$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.9230534.8%106 W · 199 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Yes6c2,552$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.12812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes12c2,430$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.833740.5%15 W · 22 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+272.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe549…7d86backed Yes31c2,205$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.12771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+29.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4173…1eecbacked Yes17c2,000$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97ea…3363backed Yes35c1,879$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.515040%20 W · 30 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid+32.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23bb…df7fbacked Yes1c1,808$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes17c1,802$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.31214.8%1 W · 20 L-4.2wins-0.20per pick25cpaid-68.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5cc4…b4f2backed Yes13c1,582$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick11cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x403f…94f1backed Yes21c1,553$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.9120443.6%89 W · 115 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e62…c577backed Yes13c1,378$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.72214.8%1 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick17cpaid-69.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdcdd…73a5backed Yes15c1,338$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003522.9%8 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-43.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5383…2294backed Yes10c1,147$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.161040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7607…c74bbacked Yes10c1,101$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.84313.2%1 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick12cpaid-91.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8545…1fbcbacked No78c1,010$791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.3757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5715…1616backed Yes10c1,006$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003125.8%8 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8888…0b39backed Yes14c990.3$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.42060%12 W · 8 L+4.2wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+25.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9afc…314bbacked Yes4c943.3$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5230%0 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes3c930.36$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.62934.1%12 W · 281 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes7c913.98$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.4332023.4%75 W · 245 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c901.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.621,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e45…3662backed No72c825.66$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.592846.4%13 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-33.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9afd…c377backed Yes11c805.82$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.1740%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes3c780.83$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.691833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97cb…c910backed Yes8c750$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602114.3%3 W · 18 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-32.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9574…a119backed Yes8c750$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601050%5 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-28.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa540…0b43backed Yes13c735.96$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.811,27724.3%310 W · 967 L-58.2wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-44.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6fa1…1f74backed Yes16c700$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1121020%2 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-56.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes16c661.55$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.4618540.5%75 W · 110 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes26c652.19$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.132429.2%7 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-43.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x86f7…c419backed Yes9c579.09$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.34560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick35cpaid+25.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes12c577.3$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9114429.9%43 W · 101 L-10.5wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes2c575.41$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.78474.3%2 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+41.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x630b…3339backed No75c531.58$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.58771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x270b…e632backed Yes17c522.45$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.244020%8 W · 32 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes5c512.74$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7819923.1%46 W · 153 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe1ea…18e7backed Yes22c510.89$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.221127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-48.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304723.4%11 W · 36 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick18cpaid-26.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes17c500$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8511133.3%37 W · 74 L-8.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-31%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6449…5b1fbacked Yes16c500$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6339…ad29backed Yes8c499.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4250%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes5c499.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2511921%25 W · 94 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-51.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9b5…1212backed Yes12c491$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.482638.5%10 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-17.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b1c…5fe8backed Yes24c431.11$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.051020%2 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No74c407.85$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.3614031.4%44 W · 96 L-0.6wins0.00per pick32cpaid-37.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cdb…ba6cbacked Yes14c400$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b7c…c37bbacked Yes15c393.7$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.5290%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11a1…7afebacked No57c365.08$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.241442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb84c…e169backed Yes17c357.31$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.814351.2%22 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+17.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x566c…3d03backed Yes15c353.48$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.085236.5%19 W · 33 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-26.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabbe…8f37backed No63c318.88$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.882142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-33%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x444c…9d2ebacked Yes10c317.22$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.725841.4%24 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-26.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes14c307.5$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6623323.6%55 W · 178 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-29.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf864…7fb5backed Yes14c300$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6c9…1c13backed Yes19c300$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+60.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fce…2566backed Yes15c280.25$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.51942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-29.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3fc…484abacked Yes23c276.1$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.263228.1%9 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-42%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda00…61b4backed Yes12c268.43$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.21650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-11.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x031a…fdf7backed Yes17c267.79$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc2a…6750backed Yes17c259.03$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.04366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes33c250$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.57832.1%25 W · 53 L-6.9wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x389a…397dbacked Yes30c249.5$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.8510051%51 W · 49 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+37.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5c4…8346backed Yes17c248.22$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+185%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1395…1ff5backed Yes7c226$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes7c225$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156114.8%9 W · 52 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fda…3fd7backed No70c220.64$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.46966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+32.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe50…5933backed Yes7c213$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c51…2126backed No73c206.72$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.721384.6%11 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.19per pick66cpaid+26.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x929a…5ab4backed Yes15c202.74$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.593633.3%12 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9e8…32d2backed Yes7c201$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6f7…87aebacked Yes12c200.01$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+55.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No72c200$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565662.5%35 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb24c…eefebacked Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2eba…ffa3backed Yes14c200$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281250%6 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb141…aa3bbacked Yes9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick34cpaid-65.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa037…2fb3backed Yes15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301275%9 W · 3 L+3.7wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+274.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa136…9977backed Yes13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9aea…b686backed No80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402450%12 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+15.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a4d…5f9fbacked Yes33c200$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+18.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbb8…1fe9backed Yes34c199.99$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684346.5%20 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes16c184.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.934534.5%119 W · 226 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ddd…47f1backed Yes12c166.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04bf…7cafbacked No67c153.5$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.655070%35 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c3d…2ff5backed Yes12c150$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182548%12 W · 13 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+55.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbd91…6262backed Yes13c136.62$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.875420.4%11 W · 43 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38bf…28e2backed Yes24c131.91$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.832330.4%7 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-47.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.