TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$85,137
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$74,825

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,137 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x06ac…79ecbacked No73c5,800$4,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,537.992176.2%16 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick62cpaid+18.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x54e4…b74dbacked Yes18c5,505$993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992.9911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-53.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x969f…4d55backed Yes20c3,573$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.3711650.9%59 W · 57 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-2.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9014…5b73backed No69c3,568$2,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,121.78966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+51.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed Yes21c3,299$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.2131034.8%108 W · 202 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4060…3ec3backed Yes7c3,188$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.7929264%187 W · 105 L+47.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+41.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x83f6…62f8backed Yes1c2,700$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.41662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+66.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0feb…db5dbacked No73c2,407$1,753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654.373100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7de…f0dbbacked No78c1,662$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.14475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+26.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8888…0b39backed Yes26c1,634$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.862060%12 W · 8 L+4.2wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+25.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0f47…d66ebacked No73c1,600$1,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.83100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc271…1708backed No75c1,600$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.823764.9%24 W · 13 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked Yes23c1,443$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.347244.4%32 W · 40 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes2c1,400$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222934.1%12 W · 281 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x131a…73f9backed Yes18c1,314$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.28837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes29c1,111$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.361833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed No76c1,075$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2543447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+348.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes30c1,017$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.3220624.8%51 W · 155 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11a1…7afebacked Yes26c970.34$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.551442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa540…0b43backed Yes29c846.9$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.061,28624.2%311 W · 975 L-58.4wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-45%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe191…2720backed Yes23c835.94$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked No78c685.57$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.9714849.3%73 W · 75 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa53b…4021backed Yes22c619.32$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.129747.5%141 W · 156 L+34.9wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+30.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No74c599.99$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15494240.2%379 W · 563 L-69.1wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6a68…6679backed No69c574.35$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.472050%10 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-22.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x403f…94f1backed Yes26c516.38$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.5620443.6%89 W · 115 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1646…2f81backed No75c506.56$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.861442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+33.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69a0…e5f6backed No78c500$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1101100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06fb…9713backed No69c500$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155875%6 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+15%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes25c482.98$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.187812.8%10 W · 68 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-69.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes44c415.72$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.8911921%25 W · 94 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-51.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x10fa…7a62backed Yes33c391.21$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes11c355.55$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1130839.6%122 W · 186 L-17.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed No63c331$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.473357.6%19 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e7f…7bfdbacked No78c325.39$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.13250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-36%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8545…1fbcbacked No68c300$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbcd4…50fabacked Yes14c300$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2940%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc15…cca6backed Yes23c258$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.62445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc83…69adbacked No80c250.13$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.131163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes13c249.98$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8723323.6%55 W · 178 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-29.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfdd4…cd4abacked Yes16c240$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.47538.7%29 W · 46 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9e6…07d0backed No74c230$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a86…f8e8backed No63c213.15$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.765525.5%14 W · 41 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-54%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xadb5…4d50backed Yes22c204.78$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.052842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No77c200$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467860.3%47 W · 31 L+7.6wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+16.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes18c200$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3634534.5%119 W · 226 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No75c196.55$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.6318540.5%75 W · 110 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd35d…ec11backed Yes22c174.06$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.291844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cbc…b953backed Yes24c173.18$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5130%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f76…ba12backed Yes21c163.74$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.851435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b4a…8a46backed No75c159.45$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.4511951.3%61 W · 58 L-11.3wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-19%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x126e…c360backed Yes10c153.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155438.9%21 W · 33 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c5f…5449backed Yes36c137.4$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.79540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa178…4d60backed No74c134.96$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb83…96a7backed Yes40c119$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.650%0 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes35c115.55$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8511929.4%35 W · 84 L-18.7wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-47.8%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xe228…1f4cbacked Yes29c111.86$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.44417.3%3 W · 38 L-4.8wins-0.12per pick19cpaid-81.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Yes17c108.1$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.091844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-30.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae69…65c9backed Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265942.4%25 W · 34 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa037…2fb3backed No67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331275%9 W · 3 L+3.7wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+274.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x14ac…d92dbacked No78c85.78$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.785058%29 W · 21 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+47.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fc6…7306backed Yes27c81.98$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.893713.5%5 W · 32 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c50…2b78backed Yes28c71.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88ce…3a36backed Yes25c61.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc2…d8f0backed No78c57.69$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0db8…1d6abacked No79c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+92.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7789…a280backed No65c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.51030%3 W · 7 L-3.3wins-0.33per pick63cpaid-57.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No77c46.26$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6712829.7%38 W · 90 L-15.7wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-55.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x11e7…f559backed Yes24c43.96$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.464047.5%19 W · 21 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9afd…c377backed Yes30c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1240%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe01b…fa88backed No78c38.46$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.462100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x845c…0407backed No79c32.61$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.764721.3%10 W · 37 L-4.2wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9d7e…7278backed No65c30.59$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6f7…87aebacked No72c29.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.41442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+55.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8fce…2566backed Yes38c27.6$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.491942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-29.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d65…da6ebacked No75c26.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.673873.7%28 W · 10 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick64cpaid+18.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdedf…fce8backed No74c25.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.76580%4 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick76cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No75c25.05$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2612126.4%32 W · 89 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-29.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ccf…7771backed No74c24.47$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58f5…b6e3backed No77c21.41$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bca…f109backed No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71782.4%14 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick68cpaid+16.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x813f…26ecbacked No73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.44257.1%24 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x60d8…b8edbacked No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.63151.6%16 W · 15 L+4.1wins+0.13per pick38cpaid+68.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2815…7f0cbacked No80c18.75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.753100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+39.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed19…cb5ebacked No77c16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.682653.8%14 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a0f…d711backed No76c15.79$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No73c15.55$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.213565.7%23 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+12.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.