TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xeb18…2372

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
78
Categories scored
21
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: AI, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category AI at 59 out of 100; worst Ncaa Basketball at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 5, 2026, EDT1338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.38
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$159.74
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$247Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$69.74
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$609Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$608.94
Israeli forces enter Beirut by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.32
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$203Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$202.8
Trump invokes War Powers against Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+300%+$78
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+88.7%+$83.19
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 20% in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$705Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+33.3%+$235
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$199.08
Khamenei public appearance by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$228Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$228.36
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$155Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+112.8%+$174.9
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$55.1
All 13 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT1266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+73%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
AI — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$139Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$62.62
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.31
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$512Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+90.2%+$461.46
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$593Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$592.74
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$133.12
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.45
Will "Apple Music" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$208Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+117.4%+$244.08
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$326Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+244.8%+$798.75
Will "Data Center" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$189Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+40.8%+$77.14
Will "Greenland" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+203%+$40.2
Will "Davos" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$128.14
Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$143Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+426.3%+$607.5
All 12 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+26%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+65.3%+$22.12
Will Lady Gaga attend the Met Gala?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$364Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$983.31
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 70m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$372Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$372
Will Sinners win Best Sound at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.24
Will All the Empty Rooms win Best Documentary Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$22.79
Will Catherine O'Hara win Best Actress in a Comedy Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$86.98
Will "The Night Agent: Season 3" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$56.95
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+138.1%+$151.38
Will "Crime 101" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 14m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$206Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+85.2%+$175.72
All 9 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.72
Named storm forms before hurricane season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$188.34
CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$278Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$277.86
Will Seattle have between 3 and 3.5 inches of precipitation in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$127.82
Will February 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$347Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$346.5
Will Seattle have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+35.1%+$53.56
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,028Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+87.2%+$896.68
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$51.74
All 8 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.33per pick47cpaid+116.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Premier League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+35.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+34.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+181.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Asian League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-51.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 3, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
East Texas A&M Lions vs. Lamar Cardinalsbacked East Texas A&M Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.21
Southern Illinois Salukis vs. Evansville Aces: O/U 142.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$103.02
Mercer Bears vs. East Tennessee State Buccaneers (W)backed East Tennessee State Buccaneers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$497Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$496.58
All 3 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+212.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$198.6
Will Motherwell FC win on 2026-02-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$39.36
All 2 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved May 26, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will G2 Esports qualify to MSI 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$403.69
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 21, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Bad Luck vs METANOIAGG (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Group Abacked Bad Luck · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+95.7%+$12.71
All 1 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahcebacked Olympiacos B.C. · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$259Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+95.7%+$247.43
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$167Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+92.3%+$154.56
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$433Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$354.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$226Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$144.69
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alan Dershowitz be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+28.2%+$7.92
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Powell say "Iran" during March press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.56
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Mahomes" be said at the Super Bowl?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$598Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$597.8
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.