World Politics · resolved market
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by 10-15%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16bbb0389e643fda12ca2192db2540931b954e16b9723ecd0826ae657f4aca2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,378
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,378 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x381c…dae1backed Yes | 24c | 1,852$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67f2…6a72backed Yes | 24c | 1,389$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed Yes | 24c | 1,362$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.88 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed No | 66c | 1,086$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.72 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac7…78c7backed No | 76c | 967$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +124.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked No | 76c | 920$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.8 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ef…095ebacked No | 76c | 896$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9e…bd49backed No | 76c | 885$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29fb…4930backed Yes | 42c | 720.97$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7270…add3backed No | 76c | 685$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.4 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 46cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…2372backed No | 76c | 677$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…1598backed Yes | 24c | 586$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 44c | 532.19$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.9 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06d8…4c30backed No | 76c | 493$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 35c | 399.5$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.15 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0122…159cbacked Yes | 51c | 389.26$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6578…ba32backed Yes | 24c | 334$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.16 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab2…3538backed Yes | 32c | 310.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…01c5backed Yes | 41c | 274.57$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd99f…dc99backed Yes | 22c | 272.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 38c | 262.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.71 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x326e…c7b9backed No | 76c | 253$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 39c | 173.02$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.02 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked Yes | 27c | 168$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -5.2wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa525…1e7bbacked Yes | 48c | 163.64$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.11 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec3…0cf1backed Yes | 43c | 160$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.7 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4e…92c4backed Yes | 32c | 157.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 150.81$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.45 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 8c | 141.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 67c | 123.43$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 53c | 119.49$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.85 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02b3…77b6backed No | 53c | 94.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fd…a3e1backed Yes | 24c | 93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed No | 73c | 82.96$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d93…7f30backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…01a3backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…e189backed Yes | 39c | 77.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a46…196cbacked No | 61c | 75.75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…1838backed No | 48c | 69.41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.41 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 62c | 68.41$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafdd…d424backed Yes | 47c | 61.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 56.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 60c | 48.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 31c | 48.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 72 | 16.7%12 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf53a…7970backed Yes | 55c | 45.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 24c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5688…8ba1backed Yes | 36c | 41.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa485…afe8backed Yes | 49c | 41.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf598…7758backed Yes | 49c | 40.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…67eabacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 52c | 36.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 74c | 31.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb237…ccb4backed Yes | 48c | 31.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9af2…1215backed Yes | 45c | 30.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d32…5162backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 49c | 29.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 125 | 56.8%71 W · 54 L | +12.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28bd…e77cbacked Yes | 38c | 26.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…9daebacked Yes | 51c | 25.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…6866backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd304…afcebacked No | 72c | 19.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b6…7458backed No | 69c | 19.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…875bbacked No | 58c | 18.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1479…eb67backed No | 69c | 16.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by 10-15%?this page
- Will GERB-SDS win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by any margin?No won
- Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by 15-20%?No won
- Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by 5-10%?No won
- Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by at least 20%?Yes won
- Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by less than 5%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.