World Politics · resolved market
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by 5-10%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2093cef2939610eb779fa771999167ef4c03edd6c195500602e3e4d0f8f14d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,546
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,546 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 2c | 2,757$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.25 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29fb…4930backed Yes | 10c | 1,998$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,180$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 72 | 16.7%12 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4e…92c4backed Yes | 9c | 1,013$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a9…4b8ebacked Yes | 17c | 968.01$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4346…2241backed No | 56c | 624$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.56 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…0051backed Yes | 44c | 607$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 18c | 589.74$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.83 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 563.89$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66f2…2badbacked Yes | 44c | 562$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.28 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead6…911fbacked No | 56c | 545$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +151.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd99f…dc99backed Yes | 7c | 533.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…65c5backed Yes | 37c | 524$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.88 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2d…ddd6backed No | 63c | 524$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.88 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b73…abcabacked Yes | 8c | 379.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +110.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 14c | 373.28$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.58 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…e189backed Yes | 14c | 345.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…ecbebacked Yes | 8c | 250.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 47c | 205.03$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.16 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 80c | 175$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb521…222fbacked Yes | 29c | 161.23$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x039a…eb06backed Yes | 8c | 152.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec3…0cf1backed Yes | 23c | 138.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 14c | 107.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa525…1e7bbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…9daebacked Yes | 13c | 89.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 56.76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa935…3baebacked Yes | 46c | 39.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed No | 53c | 23.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 48c | 21.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by 5-10%?this page
- Will GERB-SDS win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by any margin?No won
- Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by 10-15%?No won
- Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by 15-20%?No won
- Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by at least 20%?Yes won
- Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by less than 5%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.