World Politics · resolved market
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by 15-20%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63b06814bed2a8893b864a6504ec7f2abcfdad7b4bd5a7a06c4d873df5400e61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,596
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,874
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,596 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x10bc…0451backed Yes | 12c | 2,110$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,005$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.15 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c0…b919backed Yes | 11c | 1,091$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4d…b46ebacked Yes | 12c | 689$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.68 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…8234backed Yes | 12c | 655$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…0d60backed Yes | 15c | 578$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…9134backed Yes | 15c | 558$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +116.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7604…78b5backed Yes | 27c | 555.56$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18fa…3730backed Yes | 15c | 528$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 31c | 369.39$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.42 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0122…159cbacked Yes | 23c | 358.55$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.6 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5f1abacked Yes | 29c | 343.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +173.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4696…e741backed No | 73c | 342.47$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 34c | 315.17$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.16 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 40c | 293.81$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.96 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd99f…dc99backed Yes | 7c | 256.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29fb…4930backed Yes | 40c | 251.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 10c | 242.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 72 | 16.7%12 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 32c | 235.55$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.6 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked Yes | 9c | 225.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 125 | 56.8%71 W · 54 L | +12.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 21c | 204.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8d…71eebacked Yes | 37c | 199.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +43%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 9c | 190.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x819d…6e9cbacked Yes | 44c | 158.39$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec3…0cf1backed Yes | 23c | 150.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x49ef…fcf5backed No | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…2df8backed Yes | 33c | 140$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 33c | 123.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 9c | 118.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 26c | 102.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa525…1e7bbacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked No | 62c | 97$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.86 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 25c | 96.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 72c | 93.57$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 21c | 87.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 33c | 84.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 80.56$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a46…196cbacked No | 66c | 69.93$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 16c | 68.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafdd…d424backed Yes | 42c | 66.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…30b8backed Yes | 17c | 59.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 65c | 54.86$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…cac3backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…4309backed Yes | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…e189backed No | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95db…6b18backed Yes | 29c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5688…8ba1backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e5…a31ebacked No | 67c | 37.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 72c | 25.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…6866backed No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9af2…1215backed No | 71c | 15.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by 15-20%?this page
- Will GERB-SDS win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by any margin?No won
- Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by 10-15%?No won
- Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by 5-10%?No won
- Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by at least 20%?Yes won
- Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by less than 5%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.