World Politics · resolved market
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by at least 20%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2eeec6ca024ba9aa97db261f2dc2f09cdffad7647015b20ccd5f64713f7ce43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,870
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,870 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82a7…9ea8backed Yes | 25c | 2,033$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,522.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.23per pick | 33cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 6c | 2,000$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa72a…93fdbacked Yes | 51c | 1,547$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.59 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 70c | 1,541$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080.34 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 14c | 1,369$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.82 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29fb…4930backed Yes | 51c | 1,177$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd508…e84fbacked Yes | 36c | 887.79$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.79 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c66…787abacked Yes | 62c | 878.04$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5f1abacked Yes | 14c | 780.22$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +173.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4e…92c4backed No | 15c | 587.87$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked No | 14c | 360.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0122…159cbacked Yes | 36c | 290.84$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.44 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 46c | 286.39$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.9 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x493c…b0edbacked Yes | 68c | 286$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked No | 9c | 282.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 18c | 258.01$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.38 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…4309backed No | 63c | 245.99$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.97 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b73…abcabacked Yes | 24c | 210.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +110.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 49c | 209.44$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.2 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8d…71eebacked Yes | 22c | 199.28$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.97 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +43%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa169…e440backed Yes | 22c | 176.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed No | 54c | 169.46$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.27 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd99f…dc99backed No | 9c | 122.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec3…0cf1backed No | 77c | 102.56$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.18 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa995…b4f1backed No | 16c | 93.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 91.35$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.98 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 48c | 89.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 32c | 89.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 102 | 61.8%63 W · 39 L | +13.2wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4758…f17dbacked Yes | 58c | 86.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 65c | 83.82$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 17c | 83.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…f295backed Yes | 24c | 83.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +318.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 69c | 74.41$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa9…8b89backed Yes | 23c | 71.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 31c | 66.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 12cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd5…dd4bbacked No | 78c | 65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 55c | 61.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabac…8f86backed Yes | 67c | 49.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccb…e033backed Yes | 49c | 33.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7b…d5d9backed Yes | 34c | 29.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5af…0065backed No | 51c | 29.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5688…8ba1backed Yes | 49c | 28.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…6866backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 66c | 24.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 52c | 22.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 77c | 21.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by at least 20%?this page
- Will GERB-SDS win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by any margin?No won
- Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by 10-15%?No won
- Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by 15-20%?No won
- Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by 5-10%?No won
- Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by less than 5%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.