Music · resolved market
Will Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen win UMK 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80dc0d2e2481b1d4fee812a78dff3acc3b77fb887dcb84271a83d8b79f9990d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,787
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,787 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked No | 4c | 4,580$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.21 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked No | 11c | 3,140$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 4c | 1,842$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.69 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…3eebbacked No | 6c | 1,500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a5…512bbacked No | 7c | 1,097$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 14c | 1,056$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.34 | 128 | 35.9%46 W · 82 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 7c | 944.5$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.74 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…b750backed No | 16c | 845$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -73%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9859…0176backed No | 15c | 804$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed No | 17c | 698$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.66 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.23per pick | 42cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed No | 15c | 674$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 8c | 664.92$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…bf74backed Yes | 80c | 612$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d22…da8bbacked No | 16c | 532$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45ff…bab6backed No | 17c | 517$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76fd…e8c4backed No | 16c | 504$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked No | 6c | 491.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa151…13b4backed No | 17c | 470$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd68…cdd3backed No | 16c | 438$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc6…02ddbacked No | 11c | 428.56$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8755…e152backed No | 6c | 416.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b8…0c87backed No | 16c | 394$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42b…7577backed No | 20c | 377$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed No | 15c | 369$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8b…6ce9backed No | 6c | 328.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Yes | 71c | 313.15$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.46 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8401…a498backed Yes | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…e1babacked No | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf49…6cfebacked No | 17c | 279$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…b0c1backed No | 5c | 267.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 10c | 262.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab9…2ff1backed No | 20c | 235$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 6c | 199.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 12c | 171.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…2372backed No | 16c | 169$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…a45cbacked No | 8c | 133.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5544…802abacked No | 17c | 133$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 14c | 96.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…aeb8backed No | 16c | 77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x319c…4a94backed No | 17c | 74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x023d…c5d0backed Yes | 79c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen win UMK 2026?this page
- Will Antti Paalanen win UMK 2026?No won
- Will Chachi win UMK 2026?No won
- Will Etta win UMK 2026?No won
- Will Kiki win UMK 2026?No won
- Will Komiat win UMK 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.