Music · resolved market
Will Antti Paalanen win UMK 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2663d84e32f8d4b825c0cd8c94d83d4558e9e0178d7c6b49652bfdd117d2da6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,893
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,831
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,893 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90f1…bd62backed Yes | 8c | 3,890$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd31…33fdbacked Yes | 6c | 1,855$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…3eebbacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87d6…9357backed Yes | 11c | 931$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 4c | 499.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84a5…512bbacked Yes | 6c | 459.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Yes | 12c | 421.38$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 128 | 35.9%46 W · 82 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ab…56e8backed Yes | 11c | 382$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 12cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…752abacked Yes | 5c | 355.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4289…c36fbacked Yes | 16c | 351.48$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8755…e152backed Yes | 8c | 320.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf301…ab26backed Yes | 18c | 310$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc102…17cbbacked Yes | 10c | 300.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b85…0010backed Yes | 8c | 297.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…b5cebacked Yes | 13c | 243$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe01d…a45cbacked Yes | 10c | 116.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 13c | 81.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Antti Paalanen win UMK 2026?this page
- Will Chachi win UMK 2026?No won
- Will Etta win UMK 2026?No won
- Will Kiki win UMK 2026?No won
- Will Komiat win UMK 2026?No won
- Will Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen win UMK 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.