Weather · resolved market
CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8fc55155395d7c2083725edaebbd0e49d13fad1500ce7c007617cc00869573d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $149,602
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $146,521
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $149,602 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 295 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d8a…8730backed No | 1c | 9,900$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf25c…732cbacked No | 1c | 9,900$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +89.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c4…be7bbacked No | 0c | 7,369$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9d…a002backed Yes | 63c | 2,159$1,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.33 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd22a…ac22backed Yes | 53c | 1,807$962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.15 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabeb…7a78backed No | 52c | 1,797$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed Yes | 74c | 1,710$1,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.7 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4d…b46ebacked No | 68c | 1,480$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…7773backed Yes | 65c | 1,331$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.85 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c5…4c23backed No | 41c | 1,317$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.97 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed No | 33c | 1,294$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.27 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 39cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ff…986cbacked Yes | 44c | 1,280$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…ee38backed No | 41c | 1,237$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.17 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…85cdbacked Yes | 44c | 1,235$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…9b51backed Yes | 59c | 1,231$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.71 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…f582backed No | 67c | 1,177$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 15c | 1,154$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.78 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8d…fc01backed Yes | 35c | 1,122$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.3 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ba…f02dbacked No | 19c | 1,107$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf53c…00acbacked Yes | 31c | 1,049$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.81 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc70…50c0backed No | 37c | 1,010$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.7 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b82…1712backed Yes | 31c | 982$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.58 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4f…3b33backed No | 39c | 945$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.55 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed Yes | 46c | 915$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.1 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4657…00d6backed No | 54c | 915$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.1 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed0…0532backed Yes | 39c | 901$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.61 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c19…77cdbacked No | 47c | 877$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.83 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa457…1a93backed Yes | 61c | 862$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb0…0d4cbacked Yes | 63c | 847$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.39 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ae…8598backed No | 28c | 837$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.36 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…6e2ebacked Yes | 72c | 837$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.36 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x668b…3884backed No | 55c | 822$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3684…9669backed Yes | 64c | 810$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…891fbacked No | 68c | 802$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.36 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.9wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cb…933ebacked No | 36c | 800$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde45…8238backed No | 72c | 792$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.24 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f5…d7aabacked Yes | 28c | 792$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.24 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…9bc5backed Yes | 32c | 792$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.56 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…4c8bbacked Yes | 44c | 790$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.4 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…f0eabacked No | 56c | 790$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.4 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…0058backed Yes | 72c | 788$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.96 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40a1…8919backed Yes | 32c | 770$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.6 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…bcf0backed No | 35c | 753.14$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.6 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dea…e49fbacked Yes | 68c | 740.88$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x246f…0ab2backed Yes | 48c | 738$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.76 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ceb…7fc8backed Yes | 48c | 725$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6578…ba32backed No | 54c | 724$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.96 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00c2…1be5backed Yes | 46c | 724$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.96 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c8…a94dbacked No | 33c | 723$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9941…7fd9backed Yes | 32c | 710$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d48…d6f1backed No | 35c | 704$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x656c…af94backed Yes | 35c | 698$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…a1ffbacked No | 61c | 674$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.14 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed Yes | 44c | 666$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.96 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x968f…a539backed No | 56c | 666$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.96 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa756…b167backed No | 41c | 662$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.42 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x541a…1740backed Yes | 59c | 662$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58fe…a8c5backed No | 56c | 656$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.36 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ce…2213backed Yes | 61c | 650$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…b750backed No | 39c | 629$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.31 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c0…c4c9backed No | 56c | 624$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.44 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa136…2965backed Yes | 79c | 607.48$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.19 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x409a…4e8fbacked No | 69c | 606$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…c83bbacked No | 39c | 598$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.22 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x614e…4f1bbacked No | 31c | 584.26$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed No | 65c | 572$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.8 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e3…5907backed No | 41c | 561$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4805backed Yes | 63c | 532$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.84 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca87…3701backed No | 27c | 516$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.56 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…f404backed No | 33c | 502$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.66 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6a…21c3backed No | 49c | 484$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.16 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…bf74backed Yes | 35c | 473$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.45 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…275ebacked No | 65c | 473$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 49cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…c888backed No | 69c | 470$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.3 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9279…9ca7backed Yes | 59c | 469$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.29 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -63%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2971…b901backed No | 65c | 460$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…d190backed No | 19c | 458$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.02 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7d…5bc1backed No | 23c | 458$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.34 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05b…8df1backed Yes | 77c | 458$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.34 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0733…cd5abacked Yes | 33c | 453$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.51 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.7wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +122.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xff2d…caf4backed Yes | 65c | 452$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…d8e3backed No | 35c | 452$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.2 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6f…deaebacked No | 49c | 451$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.99 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…cad6backed No | 37c | 448$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.76 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaec9…3213backed Yes | 61c | 448$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.72 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…ca4cbacked No | 33c | 445$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.85 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…41f6backed Yes | 67c | 445$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3f…6e13backed Yes | 35c | 440$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2566…7d60backed Yes | 46c | 439$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.28 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1832…af9ebacked No | 65c | 438$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.7 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8697…4165backed No | 69c | 438$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.22 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2abd…74ebbacked Yes | 76c | 427$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.48 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd80d…b42bbacked No | 65c | 425$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…2372backed No | 66c | 421$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.86 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef3c…ca4fbacked Yes | 67c | 421$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c51…a829backed No | 39c | 415$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.85 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…63b6backed No | 37c | 399$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.63 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…f545backed No | 32c | 398$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.36 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6813…39e6backed No | 35c | 393$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.55 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…f59bbacked No | 24c | 390$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.29per pick | 50cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.