Middle East · resolved market
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 20% in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13aaab458476fbf7f89d3d6b1c2671e9a9f2462e8472e00aca3589f0a06a9f8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $270,038
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $265,276
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $270,038 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 296 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a7c…3216backed No | 0c | 62,971$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d2…2c5abacked No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 40c | 14,754$5,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,831.86 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Yes | 56c | 5,750$3,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,522.64 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -8.3wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 34c | 4,533$1,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,978.56 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 3c | 4,401$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.39 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked No | 16c | 2,479$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.18 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed No | 60c | 2,111$1,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,256.33 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 42c | 2,075$871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,204.29 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 25c | 2,011$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,517.23 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 64c | 2,000$1,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde87…11a2backed Yes | 45c | 1,900$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.95 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 52c | 1,900$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.72 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…24ffbacked Yes | 29c | 1,895$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,349.9 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | +8.3wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +64%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 67c | 1,843$1,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,240.34 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 53c | 1,782$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.3 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b2…a321backed Yes | 49c | 1,775$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.31 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa64…a43dbacked Yes | 22c | 1,729$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,356.9 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 27c | 1,618$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175.53 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +23%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 74c | 1,548$1,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.69 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed Yes | 74c | 1,431$1,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.06 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5e…8054backed Yes | 34c | 1,393$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.47 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 31c | 1,328$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.18 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db2…ebc2backed No | 26c | 1,306$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.25 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 7c | 1,250$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.5 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe62…6d76backed Yes | 75c | 1,245$934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 42cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…1307backed Yes | 74c | 1,229$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.54 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…99f7backed Yes | 74c | 1,176$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 23c | 1,157$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$893.67 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…9134backed No | 26c | 1,153$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.78 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed Yes | 42c | 1,135$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.3 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead6…911fbacked No | 27c | 1,125$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 64c | 1,070$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.9 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…ac57backed Yes | 73c | 1,057$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.39 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c8…e61bbacked No | 26c | 1,041$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.62 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1063…1d3fbacked Yes | 73c | 1,026$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.02 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…f5ebbacked Yes | 27c | 1,015$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.95 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed No | 27c | 1,008$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.66 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.5wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…2372backed Yes | 75c | 940$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed Yes | 72c | 919.97$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.19 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +94.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 21c | 918.71$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cb…933ebacked Yes | 75c | 916$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…1796backed Yes | 74c | 901$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.26 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked No | 80c | 900$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168e…aa56backed No | 73c | 868$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.64 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…eadcbacked Yes | 75c | 856$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6307…0447backed Yes | 75c | 837$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…0051backed No | 27c | 836$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.72 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 35c | 830$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.2 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +156.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c12…d725backed Yes | 73c | 801$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.27 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ec…46cebacked Yes | 73c | 790$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.3 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 53cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 73c | 777.7$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.2 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf13d…9896backed No | 25c | 766$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…1c04backed Yes | 73c | 756$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.12 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04d4…be7cbacked No | 25c | 748$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -5.1wins | -0.34per pick | 47cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked No | 27c | 743$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.61 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed No | 55c | 733.11$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.77 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf977…1690backed No | 27c | 712$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.39per pick | 56cpaid | -66%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 36c | 700.87$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.96 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d2…3e62backed No | 27c | 699$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.73 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…cd36backed Yes | 75c | 682$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.5 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…3258backed No | 26c | 681$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.06 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 79c | 677.49$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.27 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 674.72$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.72 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked No | 74c | 670.08$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.98 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x557e…5007backed Yes | 35c | 669.04$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.88 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefc0…4942backed Yes | 42c | 645.6$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.45 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…0119backed Yes | 54c | 626.87$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.36 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 31c | 625.38$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.42 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ba…f02dbacked Yes | 73c | 609$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.43 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed No | 71c | 600$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -12.7wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked Yes | 65c | 600$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -10.4wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2d…e9bdbacked Yes | 50c | 599.84$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.4 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…76c1backed No | 26c | 599$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.74 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3719…bd84backed No | 25c | 589$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 23c | 587.11$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.66 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb8…eea6backed No | 58c | 582$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.56 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d3…53dcbacked Yes | 73c | 572$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.44 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4805backed No | 26c | 568$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.68 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 47c | 562.69$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.2 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…7572backed No | 27c | 556$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.12 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 21c | 548.12$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.55 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9de5…b2f4backed No | 58c | 544$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x646f…23c3backed No | 58c | 544$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.52 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 47c | 535.95$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.77 | 160 | 61.9%99 W · 61 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x274f…b4b9backed Yes | 66c | 532.35$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe71…38d2backed No | 27c | 531$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 53c | 528.93$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.25 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x427e…5ab4backed Yes | 27c | 522$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.06 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d6…bca9backed Yes | 75c | 516$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x416e…a47fbacked Yes | 65c | 511.54$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.16 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1c…f13cbacked No | 78c | 500$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…084ebacked Yes | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99ab…edc1backed No | 26c | 494$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.44 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…827bbacked No | 26c | 491$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.66 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 47c | 489.98$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.39 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9818…7cd3backed No | 27c | 483$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.41 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c19…77cdbacked Yes | 73c | 483$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.41 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…92cabacked Yes | 73c | 469$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.63 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9778…1d7bbacked No | 27c | 469$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.63 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 20% in February?this page
- Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 15% in February?Yes won
- Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 25% in February?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.