Middle East · resolved market
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 25% in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x053565fab1ad53e2034a709d46ab2bb4b5af01b5446d20dea3cfe0e64c74c3f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $255,222
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $247,040
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $255,222 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2def…2183backed No | 0c | 60,990$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 33c | 27,912$9,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,263.55 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1521…f23ebacked Yes | 74c | 11,651$8,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,017.17 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +7.6wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 41c | 11,204$4,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,570.5 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 33c | 6,353$2,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,227.07 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0a…fa0fbacked No | 1c | 6,095$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 1c | 5,332$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf726…488ebacked Yes | 69c | 4,564$3,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,416.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3db…0f98backed Yes | 12c | 4,444$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,910.67 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +11.2wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaa64…a43dbacked Yes | 38c | 2,856$1,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,774.79 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…1d5bbacked No | 80c | 2,717$2,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,170.51 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -5.4wins | -0.60per pick | 71cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6339…141ebacked Yes | 58c | 2,549$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,078.69 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 65c | 2,172$1,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.93 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x557e…5007backed Yes | 57c | 2,042$1,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.51 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 79c | 1,640$1,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,295.19 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 45c | 1,539$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.41 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 80c | 1,475$1,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,174.19 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 27c | 1,368$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$993.72 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 42c | 1,167$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.52 | 140 | 36.4%51 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 77c | 1,152$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.42 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 35c | 1,087$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.54 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54ba…1c72backed Yes | 56c | 1,036$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.26 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +4.1wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +127.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed No | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…e8d7backed Yes | 73c | 1,000$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 50c | 988.97$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.31 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 14c | 966$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.26 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f5…e99bbacked Yes | 57c | 876.12$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 70c | 852.9$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.4 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +156.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1272…f85dbacked Yes | 23c | 842.13$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.51 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5e…8054backed Yes | 21c | 834.02$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.24 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde87…11a2backed Yes | 22c | 821$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.89 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b2…a321backed Yes | 31c | 819.99$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.59 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 14c | 750$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked No | 23c | 671$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.79 | 103 | 27.2%28 W · 75 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 31c | 624.4$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.29 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 76c | 600$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed No | 60c | 523.14$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.71 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab1…7df3backed No | 34c | 500$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed No | 30c | 497.86$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.36 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 22c | 489.78$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.62 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 44c | 486.59$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.2 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +12.3wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x278c…9817backed Yes | 41c | 484.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.27 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.32per pick | 23cpaid | +126.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 12c | 435.2$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.61 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked No | 16c | 423.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.12 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 72c | 423.99$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.27 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -6.6wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdeee…acdfbacked Yes | 55c | 422.99$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d98…c8ddbacked Yes | 25c | 397.89$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.89 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…bb33backed Yes | 16c | 390$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.6 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +181.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5b…22d8backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0aec…fdafbacked Yes | 16c | 357$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.88 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +4.5wins | +0.30per pick | 43cpaid | +110.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x637f…4826backed No | 23c | 346.09$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 36c | 310.26$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.42 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 22c | 275.85$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.56 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…91a9backed Yes | 13c | 266$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.42 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +131.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 26c | 250$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1db2…ebc2backed Yes | 16c | 243$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.12 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 34c | 225.82$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.55 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5f…95e2backed Yes | 51c | 225.71$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.6 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43c9…47c1backed Yes | 35c | 223$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.95 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b92…7585backed No | 65c | 223$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.95 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…827bbacked Yes | 16c | 221$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.64 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…3216backed Yes | 42c | 215.31$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 33c | 211$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.37 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 44c | 208.44$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.17 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…8803backed Yes | 57c | 207.07$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.28 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…888fbacked Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0384…27fbbacked Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcc…12a6backed No | 72c | 200$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 72cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…b6b0backed Yes | 51c | 197.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c3…a901backed No | 47c | 185.22$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.58 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce68…f6b8backed Yes | 40c | 161.15$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.69 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceb5…4438backed Yes | 73c | 160$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 150$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.76 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed No | 79c | 148.15$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.04 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -12.7wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…ce87backed Yes | 42c | 143.37$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.37 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5742…5e12backed Yes | 22c | 142.59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.79 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed No | 66c | 140$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.85 | 115 | 59.1%68 W · 47 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 53c | 140$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f2…a284backed No | 28c | 133.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 8c | 132.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.49 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 9c | 132.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.35 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed No | 76c | 132$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.08 | 202 | 35.6%72 W · 130 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb28…b1a2backed Yes | 70c | 128.37$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.51 | 117 | 30.8%36 W · 81 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 19c | 125$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.25 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +8.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked Yes | 15c | 119.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.74 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 35c | 110$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 124 | 33.1%41 W · 83 L | -12.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x20ba…a5a6backed No | 12c | 110$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89f8…d11bbacked Yes | 46c | 107.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +115.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9913…3873backed Yes | 28c | 107.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.49 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…8520backed Yes | 76c | 105.43$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73b1…4a78backed Yes | 69c | 101.45$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.48 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62c1…3d8dbacked Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -73%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 14c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00b3…0991backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 69 | 29%20 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9c…e966backed Yes | 41c | 97.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.17 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 45c | 90.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 90.2$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.66 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x416e…a47fbacked Yes | 59c | 89.12$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 25% in February?this page
- Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 15% in February?Yes won
- Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 20% in February?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.