Weather · resolved market
Will February 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a3fabf5f260d95c23b32e84a044a0fa7520a949a6ce72c91a1fb9b528c30da5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,710
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,710 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc4c…dbd5backed Yes | 24c | 27,336$6,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,663.72 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…051bbacked No | 72c | 12,471$9,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,438.83 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…de1abacked Yes | 14c | 2,023$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.65 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed Yes | 41c | 1,475$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.75 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3859…7359backed Yes | 25c | 1,290$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…bcf0backed Yes | 41c | 1,177$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.57 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…2372backed Yes | 33c | 1,050$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe17a…c6fbbacked Yes | 37c | 968$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.16 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…15ddbacked No | 59c | 960$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc1…d40bbacked Yes | 41c | 945$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.45 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed Yes | 40c | 915$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…35e8backed Yes | 20c | 894$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…c888backed Yes | 40c | 890$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee4e…aa5abacked No | 59c | 876$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.16 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…87bfbacked Yes | 41c | 861$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.01 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49f8…8c04backed Yes | 19c | 855.41$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7170…ed44backed Yes | 35c | 843$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.05 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 28c | 841.39$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…4146backed No | 69c | 831$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.71 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9d…a002backed Yes | 36c | 806$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.16 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9e…bd49backed No | 60c | 804$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ae…8598backed No | 59c | 790$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.9 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3e…0959backed Yes | 20c | 759$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed No | 60c | 742$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.8 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe309…44c2backed Yes | 15c | 738$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.7 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…75b7backed Yes | 41c | 731$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf8…0657backed No | 59c | 731$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.71 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8669…7111backed Yes | 35c | 694$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…aa8ebacked No | 64c | 694$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.84 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes | 22c | 687.22$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd4…c334backed No | 65c | 686$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.1 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…9a60backed No | 59c | 665$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.65 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…4815backed No | 67c | 655$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…275ebacked No | 75c | 638$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 49cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6578…ba32backed Yes | 41c | 626$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.66 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad5…6f41backed No | 63c | 610$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa22e…109cbacked Yes | 41c | 597$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.77 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 75c | 556.28$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.38 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19cd…f7ffbacked Yes | 42c | 550$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed No | 58c | 542$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.64 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…200fbacked No | 59c | 511$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.51 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7270…add3backed Yes | 29c | 511$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.19 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed No | 77c | 486$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.78 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08c9…bee7backed Yes | 23c | 486$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d04…131dbacked No | 71c | 474$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.46 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7086…f376backed No | 80c | 469$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf49…6cfebacked Yes | 29c | 457$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.53 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8727…83d7backed Yes | 41c | 448$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.68 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76f8…5145backed No | 59c | 448$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.68 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbe…04b4backed Yes | 29c | 441$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…ab94backed Yes | 28c | 436$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e0…ad86backed No | 72c | 436$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked No | 80c | 434$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.8 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa05b…8df1backed Yes | 27c | 431$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.37 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…e4c8backed No | 75c | 428$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…88f0backed No | 70c | 413$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.44 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…54a7backed No | 73c | 401$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.27 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb83e…10fcbacked Yes | 29c | 401$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.29 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59f3…a7fabacked Yes | 25c | 399$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab9…2ff1backed No | 75c | 399$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…2a4ebacked No | 59c | 389$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.49 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34be…6797backed No | 65c | 382$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…f3f8backed No | 61c | 380$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.2 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…f0eabacked Yes | 39c | 380$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.2 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 25c | 372.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.96 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…1307backed No | 59c | 367$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.47 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 26c | 361$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.6 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb74c…9c72backed Yes | 29c | 361$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.69 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 22c | 359$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.76 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37ef…a37abacked Yes | 15c | 328.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…91a9backed No | 71c | 328$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.12 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6307…0447backed No | 80c | 325$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad04…dce5backed No | 80c | 272$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1bf…a751backed Yes | 20c | 272$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…1700backed No | 80c | 264$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 20c | 260.13$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.47 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…f1d5backed No | 59c | 259$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.19 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5f…81c0backed No | 71c | 257$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.53 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…f7eabacked No | 71c | 254$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.66 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 24c | 250$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…891fbacked Yes | 21c | 250$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.9wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6789…52f9backed No | 59c | 247$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.27 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d48…d6f1backed No | 67c | 234$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.22 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 68c | 228.56$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.38 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 224.83$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.27 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f68…21ecbacked No | 75c | 224$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c65…5ad5backed No | 71c | 217$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.93 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 68c | 210.04$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.46 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…1796backed No | 59c | 210$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.1 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 70c | 208.67$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.19 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4df…6a6fbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…827bbacked No | 59c | 176$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.16 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x628e…4580backed No | 59c | 174$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 54cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed No | 67c | 161$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6813…39e6backed No | 64c | 160$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.47 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 70c | 156.39$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.24 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 20c | 149.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 95 | 23.2%22 W · 73 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ed…ec87backed No | 60c | 148$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 138.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 12c | 122.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will February 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?this page
- Will February 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?No won
- Will February 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?No won
- Will February 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.