TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will February 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$192,730

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $192,730 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdc4c…dbd5backed Yes1c6,729$86 inLost-$86.04616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-68.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4041…6f52backed Yes1c4,486$31 inLost-$31.276323.8%15 W · 48 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+56.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x454a…ef15backed Yes1c3,006$15 inLost-$15.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7160…981bbacked Yes1c2,776$15 inLost-$15.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdae1…fa13backed Yes1c2,564$13 inLost-$12.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dab…7227backed Yes1c2,561$13 inLost-$12.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44fa…76d5backed Yes1c2,446$12 inLost-$12.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56b6…d2a0backed Yes1c2,389$12 inLost-$11.9520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd6b…8b3fbacked Yes1c2,358$12 inLost-$11.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2baa…a8c6backed Yes1c2,326$12 inLost-$11.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfde5…774ebacked Yes1c2,283$11 inLost-$11.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes1c1,843$13 inLost-$13.48525.8%3 W · 49 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick2cpaid-43%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2aab…3a68backed Yes1c1,805$11 inLost-$10.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c1,508$13 inLost-$13.142,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes2c1,110$18 inLost-$18.574926.7%200 W · 549 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd68…cdd3backed Yes10c906$92 inLost-$92.41683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick56cpaid+43.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes4c841.39$32 inLost-$31.7626834%91 W · 177 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f9a…6fb2backed Yes10c565$58 inLost-$58.2633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-39.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4061…f5ebbacked Yes11c427$45 inLost-$44.841361.5%8 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.27per pick35cpaid+93.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes4c255.69$10 inLost-$10.399262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes6c207.02$12 inLost-$12.48010%8 W · 72 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.