Weather · resolved market
Will February 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15ff9c3631b139b5e74cb1edbc34fe3c327406781d206d0e43d4c33c8b256203
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $114,263
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,263 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1186…051bbacked Yes | 76c | 42,783$32,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,307.63 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4c…dbd5backed No | 24c | 37,582$9,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,055.67 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed Yes | 60c | 2,148$1,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.55 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…04f5backed No | 1c | 1,586$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49f8…8c04backed No | 49c | 1,498$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…01b1backed Yes | 57c | 1,382$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.26 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…24f0backed No | 19c | 1,197$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.43 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 69c | 1,157$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.17 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11e9…8e90backed Yes | 71c | 1,125$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76fd…e8c4backed No | 43c | 1,095$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ae…8598backed No | 19c | 1,082$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.91 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 69c | 1,026$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.27 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8d…fc01backed No | 12c | 997$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.64 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…fc69backed Yes | 44c | 887$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.72 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +160.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0184…23f6backed Yes | 63c | 877$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.49 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb25…5b6bbacked No | 56c | 851$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.56 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5f…81c0backed No | 57c | 838$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.66 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5140…a2debacked Yes | 63c | 812$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.44 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ab…56e8backed Yes | 78c | 793$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.46 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…ac57backed No | 29c | 750$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 29c | 728$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.15 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9941…7fd9backed Yes | 75c | 720$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf8…c7afbacked Yes | 43c | 690$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.3 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5885…6562backed Yes | 78c | 688$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.36 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes | 78c | 665.13$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…d8e3backed Yes | 42c | 633$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.14 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee4…9964backed Yes | 50c | 610$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9859…0176backed Yes | 44c | 563$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.28 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa71c…d0a8backed No | 19c | 518$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 48c | 516.83$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.01 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1100…815ebacked No | 59c | 487$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4559…f02bbacked Yes | 41c | 487$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.33 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadbd…93f9backed No | 37c | 480$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 45c | 478.38$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.39 | 95 | 23.2%22 W · 73 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…6e2ebacked No | 10c | 467$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a04…2310backed No | 37c | 466$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.42 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +67%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9279…9ca7backed No | 22c | 466$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.52 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -63%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 18c | 450.49$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.06 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb83e…10fcbacked Yes | 69c | 411$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…735dbacked No | 31c | 411$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.41 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3e…0959backed No | 58c | 394$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.52 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b2…9ae2backed No | 12c | 375$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1326…d13dbacked No | 56c | 364$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…be04backed No | 25c | 364$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 69c | 361$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.63 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3684…9669backed No | 25c | 356$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91af…95c8backed No | 37c | 332$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.84 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed No | 11c | 326$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 39cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed No | 50c | 314$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…b750backed No | 22c | 310$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…98e8backed No | 22c | 305$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +110.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 29c | 304.76$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.68 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…1307backed No | 50c | 296$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ad…b913backed Yes | 72c | 277.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66f2…2badbacked No | 37c | 277$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed No | 43c | 276$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.68 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 52c | 270.22$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.51 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0985…becfbacked Yes | 75c | 268.04$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 24c | 263.76$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.96 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 27c | 263.26$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.03 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…162abacked No | 29c | 263$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.27 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 71c | 250$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…ffeabacked No | 58c | 239$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.62 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 15c | 228.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 24c | 205.74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.36 | 84 | 10.7%9 W · 75 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 22c | 190.7$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.85 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e67…77adbacked Yes | 74c | 183.73$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.86 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c3…9cefbacked No | 22c | 178$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4cc…990abacked No | 59c | 172$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…758bbacked No | 22c | 164$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090c…3c25backed No | 56c | 151$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.56 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff2d…caf4backed Yes | 43c | 148$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.36 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 45c | 140.52$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.91 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0651…c690backed Yes | 72c | 139.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 37c | 136.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16a0…72f1backed No | 37c | 134$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab73…d8e6backed Yes | 76c | 131.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa1a…7be7backed Yes | 46c | 131$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +119.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5955…24f4backed Yes | 46c | 126$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 25c | 123.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb6…6e25backed Yes | 46c | 123$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 67c | 122.83$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74d7…fc1dbacked Yes | 46c | 122$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…fc98backed Yes | 73c | 121.46$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca51…f958backed No | 56c | 120$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…c2dabacked No | 54c | 117$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 53c | 115.19$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.73 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e69…e307backed Yes | 70c | 115$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde2b…73a0backed No | 29c | 112$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 40cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 43c | 110.33$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x65a4…e39abacked No | 54c | 109$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7474…2199backed No | 54c | 108$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf669…051fbacked No | 54c | 104$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd7…8b3cbacked No | 54c | 103$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x154f…9a12backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1f…c113backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed0…cce3backed No | 61c | 99.79$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f53…41bdbacked Yes | 42c | 96.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +140.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78c3…7003backed No | 13c | 94.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will February 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?this page
- Will February 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?No won
- Will February 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?No won
- Will February 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.