TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x08c9…bee7

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
38
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: AI, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category AI at 57 out of 100; worst Asian League at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick34cpaid+86.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
AI — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$342Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$342.36
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$297Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+104.5%+$310.68
Will Artemis II launch by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+566.7%+$215.05
Will Sergey Brin be 3rd richest person on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$19.32
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+203%+$300.16
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.50 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$120.68
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.50 (HIGH) by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$204.48
Will "Data Center" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$256Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$256.2
Will "Elon" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$137Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+66.4%+$90.97
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+426.3%+$280.26
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$121.22
All 11 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+76.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$420Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$437.58
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$48.75
Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$110.4
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+426.3%+$630.18
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$271Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+96.1%+$260.68
Khamenei public appearance by February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$171Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+85.2%+$145.36
Will Trump say "Middle East" during meeting with Netanyahu?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$236Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+244.8%+$577.23
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$648Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$648.24
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 29, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$556Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$555.84
All 9 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-38.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Powell say "Fed" or "Federal Reserve" 7+ times during March press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$159Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$152.39
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Motherwell FC win on 2026-02-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+47.1%+$43.84
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 21, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$17.98
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?backed OpenAI · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.23
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kanye release BULLY by March 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Levante UD vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$229Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$229.12
All 1 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Al Shabab Saudi Club win on 2025-12-20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$17.71
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.