IPO · resolved market
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafacd019af8894c0a0dd2581bd6b4b2572ece03bb8a98fdde905e68825b4d07f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SpaceXof SpaceX, OpenAI
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,755
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,412
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,755 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 175 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x252c…391abacked OpenAI | 14c | 2,376$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…9b51backed OpenAI | 18c | 1,507$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b7…2ddcbacked OpenAI | 3c | 1,453$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed SpaceX | 78c | 1,442$1,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa04f…15babacked OpenAI | 11c | 1,424$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x416c…8dcebacked SpaceX | 78c | 1,358$1,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…0217backed OpenAI | 15c | 1,302$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5829…e46bbacked SpaceX | 76c | 1,285$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfa…4578backed SpaceX | 79c | 1,276$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…92cabacked OpenAI | 22c | 1,199$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…5b18backed SpaceX | 69c | 1,198$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…333fbacked OpenAI | 18c | 1,185$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…9134backed OpenAI | 15c | 1,185$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed OpenAI | 1c | 1,171$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d5…1caebacked OpenAI | 18c | 1,139$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee6…7289backed SpaceX | 78c | 1,131$882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed OpenAI | 18c | 1,021$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed OpenAI | 14c | 1,005$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7149…7631backed OpenAI | 3c | 1,001$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6813…39e6backed OpenAI | 12c | 979$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x926a…3b1ebacked OpenAI | 31c | 945$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c47…4979backed OpenAI | 8c | 934.48$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa22e…109cbacked OpenAI | 19c | 910$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…8234backed OpenAI | 22c | 910$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c7…be6fbacked SpaceX | 78c | 872$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba6f…8cc1backed OpenAI | 14c | 868$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed OpenAI | 14c | 865$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c12…d725backed OpenAI | 13c | 831$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…200fbacked OpenAI | 18c | 825$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…ec8dbacked OpenAI | 11c | 824$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x628e…4580backed SpaceX | 78c | 819$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e17…0d52backed OpenAI | 21c | 810$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13d…9896backed OpenAI | 13c | 807$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…f215backed SpaceX | 78c | 796$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…87bfbacked OpenAI | 12c | 795$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 27cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55bd…6522backed OpenAI | 3c | 777.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…88f0backed OpenAI | 16c | 775$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 22cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…7572backed OpenAI | 18c | 769$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe02b…e86dbacked OpenAI | 16c | 764$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c3…9cefbacked SpaceX | 79c | 746$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked OpenAI | 3c | 723.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabeb…7a78backed OpenAI | 29c | 695$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6537…fcecbacked OpenAI | 12c | 687$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4d…b46ebacked OpenAI | 21c | 667$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…91bfbacked SpaceX | 73c | 666$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +251.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea90…0f8fbacked OpenAI | 27c | 666$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a4…aa57backed OpenAI | 14c | 665$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…d8e3backed OpenAI | 30c | 659$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4559…f02bbacked SpaceX | 65c | 652$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd08…bd74backed OpenAI | 21c | 641$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed OpenAI | 28c | 626$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…395ebacked SpaceX | 78c | 617$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +380.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…91a9backed OpenAI | 11c | 613$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…827bbacked OpenAI | 13c | 604$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…cd8ebacked OpenAI | 14c | 601$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b1…4336backed SpaceX | 68c | 595$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccc2…271abacked OpenAI | 17c | 591$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3087…f8fbbacked OpenAI | 10c | 579$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50eb…c59fbacked SpaceX | 78c | 579$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…83a4backed OpenAI | 21c | 577$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +141.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…9a60backed OpenAI | 22c | 576$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed OpenAI | 11c | 565$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…ac57backed OpenAI | 14c | 564$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…a432backed OpenAI | 21c | 550$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…9c76backed OpenAI | 15c | 538$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…9bc5backed OpenAI | 26c | 532$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d22…da8bbacked SpaceX | 68c | 504$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5b…5f59backed OpenAI | 10c | 499.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e0…c059backed OpenAI | 2c | 495.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6f…6890backed OpenAI | 17c | 494$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91be…2641backed OpenAI | 31c | 490$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x646f…23c3backed SpaceX | 69c | 490$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ab…edc1backed OpenAI | 19c | 468$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa962…8978backed OpenAI | 43c | 467.25$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…9184backed OpenAI | 22c | 462$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed OpenAI | 12c | 449$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70e7…4a70backed OpenAI | 26c | 446$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8151…3421backed SpaceX | 74c | 446$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.96 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed OpenAI | 4c | 443.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…a320backed SpaceX | 79c | 442$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed OpenAI | 10c | 437.84$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.82 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…8adebacked OpenAI | 21c | 437$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 26cpaid | +101%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…1dcfbacked SpaceX | 60c | 435$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…9f70backed OpenAI | 40c | 424$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6789…52f9backed OpenAI | 17c | 420$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd827…fe79backed OpenAI | 2c | 407.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf903…e028backed OpenAI | 6c | 405.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…1307backed SpaceX | 68c | 391$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8433…6e0fbacked OpenAI | 17c | 383$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe136…cacebacked SpaceX | 78c | 371$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…293cbacked OpenAI | 15c | 366$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked OpenAI | 22c | 358$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…a127backed OpenAI | 9c | 342$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…7773backed OpenAI | 32c | 334$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e35…384fbacked OpenAI | 22c | 334$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ab…56e8backed OpenAI | 22c | 305$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f87…3929backed OpenAI | 18c | 304$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213c…994bbacked SpaceX | 74c | 299.61$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83f6…62f8backed SpaceX | 76c | 296.68$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed OpenAI | 8c | 290.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.