AI · resolved market
Will Artemis II launch by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbbfed9e4fd00365f9ca623ca70d15fd55a7dc8bc4e7655dcf9e48d6c7c34da6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $208,028
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $173,261
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $208,028 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 214 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2455…a70fbacked Yes | 0c | 6,388$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8e…68d6backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfde5…676cbacked No | 47c | 4,520$2,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,395.27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +94%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…9c85backed Yes | 77c | 2,803$2,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,148.71 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…dbb9backed Yes | 13c | 2,735$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.12 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 2,545$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.61 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,412$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.71 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 2,408$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked No | 15c | 2,155$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,826.73 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +124%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5415…2a6ebacked No | 80c | 2,142$1,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.79 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,127$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,790$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 23c | 1,771$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.56 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437e…392dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,695$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…fbcbbacked Yes | 6c | 1,660$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b8…68c0backed Yes | 7c | 1,532$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb74c…9c72backed No | 16c | 1,248$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050.97 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked Yes | 66c | 1,245$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.88 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9af9…bcf2backed Yes | 15c | 1,121$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7c…1439backed Yes | 2c | 1,101$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c01…bffcbacked Yes | 67c | 1,096$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc88a…7e26backed Yes | 1c | 1,048$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead6…911fbacked No | 15c | 1,008$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +197.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 2c | 1,005$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 3c | 1,003$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked No | 57c | 999.9$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.2 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e36…2479backed Yes | 14c | 978$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.92 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6813…39e6backed No | 15c | 968$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b90…4ebabacked Yes | 1c | 949.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4883…ce56backed No | 52c | 936$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.28 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed Yes | 1c | 917.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 54c | 910.07$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.09 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 903.94$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…6eedbacked Yes | 2c | 889.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 15c | 873.82$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.04 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffa1…15bdbacked No | 52c | 858$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.84 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2abd…74ebbacked Yes | 48c | 858$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.84 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…434bbacked Yes | 50c | 846$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c3…9cefbacked No | 15c | 832$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.2 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…4bffbacked Yes | 58c | 809$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.41 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6c…26e0backed No | 50c | 797$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…e7f9backed Yes | 3c | 765.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 9cpaid | +170.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2b…d78bbacked No | 55c | 760$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec0…76f4backed No | 15c | 756$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9464…b4cbbacked No | 19c | 733$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.73 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 43cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…7773backed Yes | 52c | 725$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65be…3480backed Yes | 15c | 694.18$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x874a…d584backed No | 48c | 661$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.72 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 48cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…7d8abacked Yes | 36c | 652$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.72 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f3…e6aabacked Yes | 58c | 647$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.05 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcde9…d705backed Yes | 50c | 620$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db7…5143backed Yes | 5c | 599.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked No | 63c | 584$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.08 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68ba…0e6abacked Yes | 31c | 577$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.06 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +103.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…bf74backed Yes | 45c | 572$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.4 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee4…8338backed No | 34c | 571.62$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +196.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…2a92backed Yes | 4c | 564$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb741…a996backed Yes | 51c | 556.09$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…ffeabacked No | 16c | 552$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.68 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff7…a220backed No | 30c | 551$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.7 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.35per pick | 37cpaid | +124%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea90…0f8fbacked Yes | 37c | 523$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.51 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x486b…3ea7backed No | 15c | 522$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed No | 57c | 516$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.25 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43c9…47c1backed No | 15c | 514$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.9 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 33cpaid | +117%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…e5ecbacked No | 19c | 512$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.72 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 2c | 510.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1100…815ebacked Yes | 43c | 507$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.01 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed Yes | 36c | 506$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.16 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x646f…23c3backed No | 64c | 497$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.92 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 489.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90e2…7babbacked No | 52c | 472$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.56 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd29f…26b4backed Yes | 48c | 472$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.56 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1220…741abacked No | 63c | 471$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.27 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…115ebacked No | 55c | 471$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 42c | 466.46$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.13 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x529d…6381backed Yes | 61c | 456.64$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.99 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…e4c8backed No | 15c | 451$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.35 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7120…e630backed Yes | 26c | 450.13$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.78 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…a8eebacked No | 66c | 443.31$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6537…fcecbacked No | 15c | 443$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.55 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 49c | 439.69$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.09 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd137…ceacbacked Yes | 76c | 427$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.52 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…01b1backed No | 24c | 427$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.52 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9f9ebacked No | 63c | 424$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde62…64f6backed No | 15c | 407$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.95 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 8c | 405.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…9184backed No | 15c | 403$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +120.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac7…78c7backed Yes | 44c | 400$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +223.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…b053backed No | 25c | 393.14$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +297.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11c6…e25ebacked No | 57c | 389$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.27 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa05b…8df1backed No | 15c | 389$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.65 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67f2…6a72backed No | 64c | 388$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca87…3701backed No | 50c | 383$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…1b67backed No | 62c | 370$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.6 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe95b…1f15backed No | 15c | 366$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa756…b167backed Yes | 34c | 360$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c9…af45backed No | 65c | 358$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x290d…9e42backed Yes | 35c | 358$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.3 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab21…4b87backed Yes | 80c | 355$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccb…6c69backed No | 20c | 355$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Artemis II launch by March 31?this page
- Will Artemis II launch by April 30?Yes won
- Will Artemis II launch by February 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.