TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Artemis II launch by February 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$168,829
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$141,529

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $168,829 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x713e…408fbacked Yes1c3,799$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes0c3,438$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8121713.4%29 W · 188 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb16c…ed79backed Yes1c3,350$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c3,289$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.472522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes1c2,904$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.561754%7 W · 168 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cd7…9c85backed Yes79c2,710$2,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,131.254235.7%15 W · 27 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes2c2,324$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b01…95a9backed Yes1c2,195$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.95190%0 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes1c1,825$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.513042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3302…79c0backed Yes1c1,750$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5170%0 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa4a…0502backed Yes2c1,730$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-50.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4977…f4ddbacked Yes8c1,670$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes8c1,278$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.865111.8%6 W · 45 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-51.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes1c1,264$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.51865.8%5 W · 81 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d3e…e8efbacked Yes3c1,254$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes1c1,250$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.526312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes2c1,188$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.591867%13 W · 173 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-50.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfde5…676cbacked No29c1,141$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$809.92475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+94%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes1c1,128$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.24717%5 W · 66 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+33.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e4…471abacked No19c1,125$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$915.71850%9 W · 9 L+4.3wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+124%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes1c1,100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14767.9%6 W · 70 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+52.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c40…3d64backed Yes1c1,050$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.560%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3e4…e7f9backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10540%2 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.31per pick9cpaid+170.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xca51…f958backed Yes76c860$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde9f…cd36backed No24c852$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.521275%9 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+63.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes1c845.86$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101216.7%2 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick4cpaid+494.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa938…a1ffbacked Yes79c835$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.653132.3%10 W · 21 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-35%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e17…0d52backed Yes76c788$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.881376.9%10 W · 3 L+4.5wins+0.35per pick42cpaid+122.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x3069…f8efbacked No34c785.14$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.144161%25 W · 16 L+4.0wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3734…01a3backed No20c767$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.61957.9%11 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+52.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5be7…46eebacked No24c704$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.042035%7 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc536…589ebacked Yes76c670$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.2633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick63cpaid-51.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7305…b7d2backed Yes2c664.63$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c657.27$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.281,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ce…2fa6backed Yes4c645.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.841637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03a3…fdf4backed Yes80c633$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.42330.4%7 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked No44c620.16$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.942740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1697…4cf6backed No24c599$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.241050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+57.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes2c595.8$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.571175.1%6 W · 111 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-65.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6fcb…37aabacked Yes3c582.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a3a…ca4cbacked No20c570$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4561662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+28.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4653…65c5backed No20c551$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.8944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+55%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6509…4674backed Yes76c550$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+65.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b23…0d60backed Yes76c550$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4182040%8 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid+35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes2c548.45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.272792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0285…59d6backed Yes75c525$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.751050%5 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcaec…2833backed Yes65c522.46$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea5a…e6aebacked No24c518$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.681764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+46%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked No39c509.94$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.941533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bf2…4483backed No48c496.43$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+106.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e9c…d1bebacked No24c491$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.161931.6%6 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes13c471.2$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5820731.9%66 W · 141 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2a5…b42cbacked Yes76c470$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.21050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+43.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc68e…0a70backed Yes67c457.91$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8132…a491backed Yes80c453$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.41040%4 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick57cpaid+5.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x008d…6b86backed Yes3c441.44$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf13d…9896backed No24c439$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.641258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+91%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc913…488bbacked Yes15c439$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6560…e164backed No78c420$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.29040%36 W · 54 L+8.9wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+30.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x968f…a539backed No21c417$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.432441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffa1…15bdbacked No25c407$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.251353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb555…83e5backed Yes75c407$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.25850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-21.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes3c398.01$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.822977.7%23 W · 274 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd08…bd74backed No21c376$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.041861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+25.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f76…1d92backed No32c362.52$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.191540%6 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-31.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes9c341.66$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.031915.8%3 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-74.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x035a…6272backed No35c337.18$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43d5…2e11backed Yes79c337$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.233345.5%15 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9631…89a1backed No42c332.8$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+135.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6546…c454backed No20c327$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.61478.6%11 W · 3 L+4.3wins+0.31per pick48cpaid+142.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd8c5…b4e1backed No25c315$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.25862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick38cpaid+203.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbfc3…b21fbacked No15c310$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.5944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid+40.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes57c290.71$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.0289417.1%153 W · 741 L-145.2wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-61.4%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x117f…088ebacked Yes79c281$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.991741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No35c279.45$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.0311841.5%49 W · 69 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2eb…5751backed No25c267$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.252560%15 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+35.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x416c…8dcebacked Yes75c267$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.251546.7%7 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes11c260.48$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9140712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8c42…1616backed No24c259$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.84771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick44cpaid+64.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xea90…0f8fbacked Yes80c255$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2041553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+75.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x367b…48dabacked No21c254$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.662839.3%11 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x95e8…6f21backed Yes79c254$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.66911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.7wins-0.41per pick52cpaid-74.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2950…ffeabacked Yes80c244$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.22657.7%15 W · 11 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+33.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb132…6943backed Yes80c240$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1921136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-40.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes17c235.29$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408247.6%39 W · 43 L+19.9wins+0.24per pick23cpaid+108.3%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0x8de5…9416backed No24c227$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.52944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2247…96e8backed No20c224$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.21330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+31.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No44c221$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.7414643.8%64 W · 82 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b8b…aa7dbacked Yes70c213.1$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-5.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa347…2a40backed Yes28c213$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.712520%5 W · 20 L-5.8wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-71.4%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xe1cb…933ebacked No25c210$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.52250%11 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+31.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5cc8…1612backed Yes61c170$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10420%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e6e…2259backed No25c160.52$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.52366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+124.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x55d0…f655backed No55c151.98$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.9920130.3%61 W · 140 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-29.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x83cb…c08bbacked Yes69c150$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.340%0 W · 4 L-2.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x863b…7c6fbacked Yes76c147$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.72333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid+28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed Yes59c130.92$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.0713971.9%100 W · 39 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97ed…28e1backed No21c129$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.911241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06a2…0acbbacked Yes65c126.92$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.2425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x832d…e774backed Yes21c113.83$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.