AI · resolved market
Will Artemis II launch by February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf427a3a51aa40f870db53672a480e2d3cbcafb3c7007a4340dded7bb58b01b56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $168,829
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $141,529
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $168,829 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x713e…408fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,799$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 0c | 3,438$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb16c…ed79backed Yes | 1c | 3,350$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 3,289$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 2,904$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…9c85backed Yes | 79c | 2,710$2,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,131.25 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,324$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed Yes | 1c | 2,195$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 1,825$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3302…79c0backed Yes | 1c | 1,750$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4a…0502backed Yes | 2c | 1,730$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4977…f4ddbacked Yes | 8c | 1,670$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 8c | 1,278$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.86 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 1c | 1,264$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 86 | 5.8%5 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3e…e8efbacked Yes | 3c | 1,254$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 1,188$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfde5…676cbacked No | 29c | 1,141$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +94%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 1c | 1,128$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 71 | 7%5 W · 66 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked No | 19c | 1,125$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915.7 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +124%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c40…3d64backed Yes | 1c | 1,050$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…e7f9backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 9cpaid | +170.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca51…f958backed Yes | 76c | 860$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…cd36backed No | 24c | 852$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.52 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 1c | 845.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 4cpaid | +494.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…a1ffbacked Yes | 79c | 835$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.65 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e17…0d52backed Yes | 76c | 788$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.88 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +4.5wins | +0.35per pick | 42cpaid | +122.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked No | 34c | 785.14$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.14 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…01a3backed No | 20c | 767$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.6 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…46eebacked No | 24c | 704$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.04 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc536…589ebacked Yes | 76c | 670$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7305…b7d2backed Yes | 2c | 664.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 657.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ce…2fa6backed Yes | 4c | 645.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed Yes | 80c | 633$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.4 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked No | 44c | 620.16$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.94 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1697…4cf6backed No | 24c | 599$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.24 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 595.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcb…37aabacked Yes | 3c | 582.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…ca4cbacked No | 20c | 570$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…65c5backed No | 20c | 551$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +55%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6509…4674backed Yes | 76c | 550$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…0d60backed Yes | 76c | 550$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 548.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0285…59d6backed Yes | 75c | 525$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.75 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaec…2833backed Yes | 65c | 522.46$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…e6aebacked No | 24c | 518$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.68 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +46%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…a22bbacked No | 39c | 509.94$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.94 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf2…4483backed No | 48c | 496.43$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +106.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d1bebacked No | 24c | 491$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.16 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 13c | 471.2$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.58 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a5…b42cbacked Yes | 76c | 470$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc68e…0a70backed Yes | 67c | 457.91$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8132…a491backed Yes | 80c | 453$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…6b86backed Yes | 3c | 441.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf13d…9896backed No | 24c | 439$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.64 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +91%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc913…488bbacked Yes | 15c | 439$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed No | 78c | 420$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.2 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x968f…a539backed No | 21c | 417$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.43 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffa1…15bdbacked No | 25c | 407$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.25 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…83e5backed Yes | 75c | 407$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 398.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd08…bd74backed No | 21c | 376$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.04 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f76…1d92backed No | 32c | 362.52$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.19 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 9c | 341.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…6272backed No | 35c | 337.18$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed Yes | 79c | 337$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.23 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…89a1backed No | 42c | 332.8$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +135.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…c454backed No | 20c | 327$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.6 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.3wins | +0.31per pick | 48cpaid | +142.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c5…b4e1backed No | 25c | 315$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +203.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked No | 15c | 310$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 57c | 290.71$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.02 | 894 | 17.1%153 W · 741 L | -145.2wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x117f…088ebacked Yes | 79c | 281$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.99 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 35c | 279.45$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.03 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed No | 25c | 267$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.25 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x416c…8dcebacked Yes | 75c | 267$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.25 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 260.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c42…1616backed No | 24c | 259$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.84 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 44cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea90…0f8fbacked Yes | 80c | 255$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked No | 21c | 254$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.66 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95e8…6f21backed Yes | 79c | 254$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.66 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.41per pick | 52cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…ffeabacked Yes | 80c | 244$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.2 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb132…6943backed Yes | 80c | 240$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 17c | 235.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +19.9wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…9416backed No | 24c | 227$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.52 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2247…96e8backed No | 20c | 224$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.2 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 44c | 221$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.74 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8b…aa7dbacked Yes | 70c | 213.1$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa347…2a40backed Yes | 28c | 213$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.71 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -5.8wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cb…933ebacked No | 25c | 210$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…1612backed Yes | 61c | 170$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6e…2259backed No | 25c | 160.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +124.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed No | 55c | 151.98$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.99 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83cb…c08bbacked Yes | 69c | 150$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x863b…7c6fbacked Yes | 76c | 147$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 59c | 130.92$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.07 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ed…28e1backed No | 21c | 129$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.91 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…0acbbacked Yes | 65c | 126.92$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x832d…e774backed Yes | 21c | 113.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Artemis II launch by February 28?this page
- Will Artemis II launch by April 30?Yes won
- Will Artemis II launch by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.