TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7289…4bff

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
53
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Weather, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Weather at 54 out of 100; worst Middle East at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$126.69
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$283Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$133.12
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$221Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+88.2%+$194.97
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$164Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$104.91
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$219Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$219
Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$662Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+106.2%+$702.97
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$441Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$441.48
Will Artemis II launch by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$468Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$468.41
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$324Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$832.32
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$149.49
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 30% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$344Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$344.28
Will "Audit" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$198.87
All 12 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 80m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$366Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$365.67
Will Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.2
Will One Battle After Another win Best Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$110.76
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture at the 2026 SAG Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+177.8%+$207.36
Will The Pitt win Best Ensemble in a Drama Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$53.1
Will Jeopardy! win Best Producer of Game & Competition TV at the 37th PGA Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$80
Will "Reality Check: Inside America's Next Top Model" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$472Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+26.6%+$125.58
Will "Wuthering Heights" Second Weekend Box Office be less than 18m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+42.9%+$94.2
Will Marshall Curry - SNL50: Beyond Saturday Night win Best Director of a Documentary Series or News at the 78th DGA Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$242Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$242.19
All 9 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+25.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-66.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Asian League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick19cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Finland be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+566.7%+$73.1
Will Kanye release BULLY by March 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.52
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Neverita be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$246Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+88.7%+$218.08
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+51.5%+$25.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$853Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$331.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Siena Saints vs. Rider Broncs: O/U 135.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$233Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+29.4%+$68.55
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$14.47
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Portsmouth FC vs. Ipswich Town FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$110.7
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Motherwell FC win on 2026-02-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$71.05
All 1 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahcebacked Fenerbahce · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$165.39
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Borussia Dortmund advance to the round of 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$389Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$388.62
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$110.58
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.