Movies · resolved market
Will "Wuthering Heights" Second Weekend Box Office be less than 18m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7c123bb6af3999196f7be504b7109c13f339053ba0522a5370152d5f329578a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,888
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,685
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,888 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 15c | 3,850$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.88 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked No | 13c | 3,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x777d…47ccbacked No | 0c | 2,918$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…d221backed No | 2c | 994.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 2c | 925$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 742.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9f…c0d4backed Yes | 76c | 531$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.44 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed No | 6c | 500$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 13c | 496.6$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.06 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed No | 24c | 462$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.88 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 3c | 388$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 210 | 9.5%20 W · 190 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…e898backed No | 12c | 341$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed No | 31c | 327.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6813…39e6backed No | 30c | 314$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…4bffbacked Yes | 70c | 314$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 11c | 310.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78e1…10e6backed Yes | 74c | 270.35$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 20c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0b…b8b2backed No | 10c | 185$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…1598backed No | 24c | 174$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 79c | 163.5$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.33 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…c094backed No | 13c | 131.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed Yes | 74c | 115$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b2…9d96backed Yes | 76c | 105$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 13c | 89.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a8…9b29backed Yes | 76c | 83$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90b9…1951backed No | 22c | 83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e79…e974backed No | 24c | 83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 76c | 73$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 71c | 63.48$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae6e…b1debacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4695…9d51backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcac5…ae8abacked Yes | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Wuthering Heights" Second Weekend Box Office be less than 18m?this page
- Will "Wuthering Heights" Second Weekend Box Office be between 18m and 20.5m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.