Movies · resolved market
Will One Battle After Another win Best Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb666f14f159b1d05f08cece23eecd34dd94b3fc4d7523c2d14ef6fb58f85708
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,905
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,905 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56eb…076abacked Yes | 16c | 5,553$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,676.41 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dee…f426backed No | 1c | 4,399$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -88%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3395…7c66backed Yes | 29c | 2,301$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,625.82 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 13c | 2,173$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,896.1 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 15c | 2,000$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,694.97 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 18c | 1,715$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,405.16 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b7…d913backed Yes | 14c | 1,479$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,271.94 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 18c | 1,222$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.96 | 53 | 11.3%6 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97f6…c7c3backed Yes | 14c | 1,179$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,016.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +197.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 13c | 1,003$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.85 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…ab57backed Yes | 28c | 1,000$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +192.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e1…1d2ebacked No | 78c | 951$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.78 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed Yes | 26c | 845$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.3 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed No | 74c | 804$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.96 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…141abacked Yes | 29c | 795$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.45 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…bd71backed Yes | 22c | 770$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.6 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +73%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 74c | 741.51$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.93 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 15c | 732.15$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.51 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…15ddbacked No | 78c | 692$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…92cabacked Yes | 26c | 679$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.46 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 17c | 610.28$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.04 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…e6aebacked No | 71c | 595$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.45 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32b7…9cfabacked Yes | 16c | 592.83$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 75c | 582.45$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.07 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ad…4953backed Yes | 13c | 555$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.85 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd47a…4e85backed Yes | 14c | 510$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x217e…09debacked Yes | 22c | 508$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.24 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 13c | 502$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.14 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes | 13c | 499.97$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.97 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e7c…5a5fbacked No | 74c | 481$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 66c | 477.67$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.25 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58d4…e1efbacked Yes | 26c | 420$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.8 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa44b…eb27backed Yes | 35c | 419$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.35 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…88f0backed No | 74c | 414$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.36 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -5.2wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…0e2bbacked Yes | 30c | 401$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.7 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfe…6108backed No | 70c | 401$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x115a…e4a6backed Yes | 27c | 372.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.84 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf36c…6b40backed Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.33 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…bcf0backed Yes | 26c | 313$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.62 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…e442backed Yes | 22c | 312$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.36 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…4d4cbacked No | 65c | 302$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.3 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…434bbacked No | 71c | 302$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.42 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa71c…d0a8backed Yes | 29c | 302$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.42 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 14c | 300$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.93 | 133 | 21.1%28 W · 105 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c8…e61bbacked No | 78c | 252$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 245.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.36 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6813…39e6backed No | 77c | 243$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…0137backed No | 74c | 242$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.08 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 8c | 236.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 13c | 230$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.4 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 14c | 228.07$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.14 | 74 | 4.1%3 W · 71 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 19c | 206.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.78 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9450…d9e6backed Yes | 14c | 202$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.72 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccd…1ec9backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 72c | 200$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…46eebacked No | 71c | 200$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1b…8bd5backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 13c | 198$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 211 | 9.5%20 W · 191 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…ca4cbacked No | 74c | 192$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.08 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…c9bfbacked Yes | 19c | 184.6$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.08 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd84b…0df3backed Yes | 14c | 174.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.45 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 15c | 169.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.13 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 67c | 165$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.91 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Yes | 23c | 160$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3c…61e2backed Yes | 12c | 156.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.96 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +70%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…cbbebacked Yes | 14c | 149.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.97 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…4bffbacked Yes | 22c | 142$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.76 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c90…17fbbacked Yes | 22c | 131$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.18 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Yes | 14c | 128$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.3 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed Yes | 23c | 124$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.48 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 15c | 122.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.54 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +97.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6787…8884backed Yes | 23c | 119$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.63 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ae…e13abacked No | 65c | 117$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.05 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe557…a3f1backed No | 79c | 115.28$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.07 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3490…381bbacked Yes | 15c | 108.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.11 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +157.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95bb…3e98backed Yes | 19c | 105.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.29 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48f0…9f5bbacked Yes | 14c | 102.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.9 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…c1c4backed Yes | 14c | 99.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.98 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 14c | 95.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.22 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 11c | 95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…588ebacked Yes | 26c | 95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 76c | 85.09$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.08 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf49…6cfebacked Yes | 29c | 81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.51 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b63…bb9cbacked No | 71c | 81$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.51 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked Yes | 19c | 78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.18 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa347…2a40backed No | 74c | 78$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 15c | 76.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.35 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eae…5e6dbacked Yes | 18c | 75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x243a…05a5backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 77c | 56.88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.77 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6142…367bbacked Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…8191backed No | 74c | 41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x297d…800abacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc6…02ddbacked No | 75c | 22.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 68c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | -14.5wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -65%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will One Battle After Another win Best Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Hamnet win Best Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Marty Supreme win Best Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Sinners win Best Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will The Secret Agent win Best Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.