Movies · resolved market
Will Sinners win Best Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5440d427adfa71c54e533494b4b2d81221de886be29910193ed9c51fa91ad046
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $201,793
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $201,793 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 240 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 77c | 20,280$15,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,665.45 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x227c…03f5backed Yes | 78c | 12,635$9,877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,876.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd544…4d5ebacked No | 40c | 9,946$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,946.34 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +16%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 22c | 7,765$1,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,050.28 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 20c | 6,370$1,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,092.63 | 194 | 40.2%78 W · 116 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe557…a3f1backed No | 16c | 6,355$1,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,342.73 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 79c | 4,443$3,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,489.77 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dee…f426backed Yes | 1c | 4,318$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -88%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56eb…076abacked Yes | 77c | 4,000$3,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,079.99 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 78c | 3,255$2,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,548 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 27c | 1,908$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,398.45 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 22c | 1,771$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,379.02 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 24c | 1,547$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175.74 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 15c | 1,466$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.9 | 53 | 11.3%6 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55fd…2c99backed No | 25c | 1,367$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,027.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 23cpaid | +219.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 76c | 1,286$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.04 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eeb…0ca9backed Yes | 79c | 1,263$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25d7…895dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,260$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 21c | 1,171$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.97 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +97.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +8.2wins | +0.28per pick | 17cpaid | +145.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…b17ebacked Yes | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked No | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed No | 24c | 999.98$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.98 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed No | 37c | 977$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.51 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Yes | 73c | 963.08$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 72c | 953$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.61 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32d0…6070backed No | 19c | 944.61$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.13 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed Yes | 63c | 943.83$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.49 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf977…aff0backed Yes | 63c | 934$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.42 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 19c | 924.16$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.27 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed Yes | 67c | 882.52$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.35 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad5…6f41backed Yes | 62c | 867$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…46eebacked Yes | 60c | 848$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 26c | 842.39$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.99 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8e…9be8backed Yes | 65c | 815$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.75 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7635…9ae0backed No | 36c | 637$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.68 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…3562backed No | 35c | 601$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.65 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e0…1acebacked Yes | 77c | 600$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 14c | 600$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 211 | 9.5%20 W · 191 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…7da2backed Yes | 70c | 600$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.44 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8dd…9b5abacked Yes | 79c | 599.3$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…e68dbacked Yes | 76c | 567$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.92 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb04e…d4aabacked No | 36c | 560.96$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.96 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…f5ebbacked No | 38c | 548$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.76 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…6622backed No | 24c | 537$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.12 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…85cdbacked No | 40c | 537$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed No | 23c | 500$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…2b04backed Yes | 73c | 486.01$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.51 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x486b…3ea7backed No | 40c | 480$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b3…fe06backed No | 22c | 455.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 23c | 448$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.77 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d24…a2e9backed No | 38c | 442$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.04 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…0058backed Yes | 62c | 442$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.04 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 19c | 420.63$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.63 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 78c | 420$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.59 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaec9…3213backed Yes | 64c | 419$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 76c | 417.11$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317 | 157 | 39.5%62 W · 95 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…2037backed No | 24c | 416.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd001…3ceabacked Yes | 60c | 405$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 79c | 400$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b5…80eebacked Yes | 78c | 393.18$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.97 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbfc…e387backed No | 22c | 391.26$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.26 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…c83bbacked Yes | 63c | 382$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.66 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a0…cae1backed No | 37c | 382$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.66 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +161.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a8…2a44backed No | 44c | 376$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.56 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…32d9backed Yes | 56c | 376$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.56 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe24a…fc69backed No | 40c | 349$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…dd5fbacked Yes | 60c | 349$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed No | 22c | 344.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.29 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9a…cc24backed Yes | 63c | 322$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.86 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed No | 17c | 321.69$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…398dbacked Yes | 74c | 319.42$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.17 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbc…d620backed No | 38c | 319$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b45…836ebacked No | 51c | 315$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.35 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…aa8ebacked Yes | 49c | 315$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.35 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63b4…7e30backed No | 28c | 312.79$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…735dbacked Yes | 62c | 303$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4744…e229backed No | 38c | 303$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.86 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b4…1e3ebacked Yes | 76c | 299.98$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.99 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 36c | 275.29$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.37 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 31c | 274.03$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.38 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 78c | 255.63$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.51 | 129 | 38.8%50 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7b…9ab9backed Yes | 80c | 250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 35c | 244.34$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.94 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…cbbebacked No | 23c | 240$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.8 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…84e3backed No | 40c | 236$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.6 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 21c | 230.37$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.15 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed Yes | 9c | 229.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd7…338fbacked Yes | 77c | 222.08$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed No | 24c | 222$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.72 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e08…7e2ebacked Yes | 64c | 218$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd4…c334backed No | 35c | 214$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 76c | 208.76$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.61 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 27c | 200$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes | 76c | 200$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 29c | 200$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.2 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafa4…0dfebacked Yes | 78c | 200$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.2 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd87d…816abacked Yes | 67c | 190.71$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22d3…5e3abacked Yes | 66c | 190.58$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc6…02ddbacked Yes | 70c | 184.89$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.29 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sinners win Best Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Hamnet win Best Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Marty Supreme win Best Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will One Battle After Another win Best Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will The Secret Agent win Best Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.