Movies · resolved market
Will The Secret Agent win Best Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3a206598f3db68f3bb235d4498f49eb4889300d4977291248c64587e807dbc5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,962
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,962 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 5c | 5,432$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.63 | 69 | 17.4%12 W · 57 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x270e…2930backed Yes | 6c | 3,306$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.04 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 3c | 2,191$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.23 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +97.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,930$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.03 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,531$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.39 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 3c | 1,142$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd968…2292backed Yes | 5c | 1,122$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…c1c4backed Yes | 4c | 1,109$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.18 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 744.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 73 | 6.8%5 W · 68 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 732.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe4…4975backed Yes | 4c | 676.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 2c | 672.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 194 | 40.2%78 W · 116 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 2c | 600$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7785…490abacked Yes | 3c | 577.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff6b…c679backed Yes | 3c | 576.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…145cbacked Yes | 2c | 569.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 41 | 0%0 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 3c | 560.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 35 | 5.7%2 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d5…726dbacked Yes | 3c | 409.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -47%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8015…da39backed Yes | 3c | 398.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60df…30dabacked Yes | 5c | 348.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…5620backed Yes | 3c | 323.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56a8…d5dbbacked Yes | 4c | 254.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f7…56e2backed Yes | 4c | 228.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8647…d870backed Yes | 5c | 219.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7874…8d9ebacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1383…57a1backed Yes | 6c | 176.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 9c | 136$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will The Secret Agent win Best Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Hamnet win Best Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Marty Supreme win Best Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will One Battle After Another win Best Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Sinners win Best Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.