Middle East · resolved market
Will Khamenei tweet every day through March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4c77f59bca159ac98d4cbf8dc9d2f8a039399b1c827315d9d00f5e7d51895d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,335
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed Yes | 11c | 1,435$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.06 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b7…d913backed No | 68c | 1,119$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.08 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked No | 68c | 1,116$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.12 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d16…12d0backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 62c | 938.99$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.44 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…1dcfbacked Yes | 32c | 769$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.08 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed Yes | 32c | 754$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.28 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.5wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86c5…4c23backed Yes | 32c | 713$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.16 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -4.9wins | -0.37per pick | 45cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 11c | 668.65$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.43 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd509…d6b7backed Yes | 25c | 600$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…0a7bbacked No | 75c | 600$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +229.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9d…8201backed No | 78c | 588.53$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.05 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +15.3wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5e…8054backed Yes | 42c | 544.99$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.01 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 69c | 430.65$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.21 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eec…9a8cbacked No | 64c | 359.25$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.24 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 79c | 301.71$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.68 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked No | 58c | 296.94$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.79 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb069…0e1cbacked Yes | 41c | 243.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…4a59backed Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd215…b4eebacked No | 74c | 215$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.9 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c39…3de2backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 66c | 197.95$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 32c | 193$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.46 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 80c | 180$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 70c | 175.61$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.64 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed Yes | 38c | 159$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +7.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 72c | 133.39$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 34c | 104.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…e8d7backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 21c | 99.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…91bfbacked Yes | 26c | 78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…4bffbacked Yes | 26c | 74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…ae6dbacked No | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf693…995ebacked Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 40cpaid | -74%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 21c | 63.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -11.0wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaef9…0acbbacked Yes | 26c | 63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 63c | 62.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21a1…2f95backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b03…83dcbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…31e2backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +164.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb526…613abacked Yes | 29c | 48.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6119…cdb9backed Yes | 43c | 47.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbda…e78bbacked Yes | 50c | 46.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 36c | 44.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…7e38backed No | 57c | 36.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…2c93backed No | 62c | 33.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 88 | 67%59 W · 29 L | +15.2wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +72%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…35aebacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 123 | 62.6%77 W · 46 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 69c | 24.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 247 | 59.1%146 W · 101 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc3…a71fbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0174…2150backed No | 80c | 19.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei tweet every day through March 31?this page
- Will Khamenei tweet every day through March 20?No won
- Will Khamenei tweet every day through March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.