Middle East · resolved market
Will Khamenei tweet every day through March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0bf5538fd02f67c3f611bb94afa5c0794e97fed61e6cca01191196fc1f1c00e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,068
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc362…7f4fbacked Yes | 32c | 1,290$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.8 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 36c | 1,066$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.56 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9d16…12d0backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 48c | 996.65$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.09 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 20c | 951$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.49 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5140…a2debacked No | 68c | 857$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 854.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe617…f251backed Yes | 59c | 844.33$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9d…8201backed No | 64c | 682.86$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.26 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +15.3wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 18c | 673.32$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.23 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…4a59backed Yes | 72c | 530.85$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.99 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed Yes | 7c | 484.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 65c | 450.95$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.08 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40f…f707backed Yes | 26c | 377.24$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd7…96d3backed No | 48c | 359.32$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.73 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb50c…8c30backed No | 68c | 325$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 9c | 322.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 49c | 299.98$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.95 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 210.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 65c | 207.28$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.88 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 15c | 175.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3b60…49bfbacked No | 48c | 172.21$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.21 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 51c | 170.38$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.49 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 68c | 146.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 16c | 146.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked No | 33c | 142.4$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.43 | 110 | 16.4%18 W · 92 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 42c | 126.7$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.9 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde2b…73a0backed No | 68c | 108$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0275…b936backed Yes | 19c | 105.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 121 | 14%17 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 159 | 22.6%36 W · 123 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…31e2backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +164.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 12c | 99.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed No | 50c | 98.61$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.79 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccdd…a831backed No | 45c | 91.02$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.96 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0548…66a0backed No | 70c | 86.87$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 30c | 86.35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 33c | 83.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 40c | 83.06$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.09 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1964…5e04backed Yes | 58c | 77.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6068…7ff3backed Yes | 68c | 73.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6520…cf00backed No | 46c | 61.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 76c | 57.73$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 44c | 54.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 33c | 52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -11.0wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…649fbacked No | 57c | 51.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 50c | 50.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x364f…562cbacked Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…64c9backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -8.8wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…a2c2backed No | 41c | 48.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…1812backed No | 57c | 45.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 33c | 42.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…bdadbacked Yes | 45c | 42.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x314b…f748backed No | 50c | 40.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ab…300abacked Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21a1…2f95backed Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x631c…450fbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfeb…2d04backed Yes | 66c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -7.9wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb7…2cbdbacked No | 60c | 33.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 40c | 30.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 216 | 31.9%69 W · 147 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a2…c111backed Yes | 56c | 28.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe295…55b3backed Yes | 66c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked No | 73c | 19.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf29…bd92backed No | 61c | 16.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei tweet every day through March 20?this page
- Will Khamenei tweet every day through March 27?No won
- Will Khamenei tweet every day through March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.