Middle East · resolved market
Will Khamenei tweet every day through March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d9b5c54e65dd9502883c7aea046e5e4c7aac0a92ffac7e9bf5c13a26f754177
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,755 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc319…6baabacked No | 66c | 1,244$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.96 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed No | 77c | 1,132$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.54 | 140 | 36.4%51 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d16…12d0backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfa…4578backed Yes | 34c | 758$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…0051backed Yes | 34c | 729$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.86 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 20c | 475.12$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.31 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 12c | 438.96$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 10c | 422.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 63c | 287$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.19 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed Yes | 16c | 262.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9f…c0d4backed No | 66c | 243$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.62 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 69c | 235.63$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.15 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 63c | 192.79$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.07 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 48c | 167.68$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.76 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked No | 41c | 136.3$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.96 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b60…49bfbacked Yes | 38c | 106.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 62c | 105.62$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…4a59backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…e8d7backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd7…96d3backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 21c | 90$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed No | 79c | 88.2$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 37c | 84.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 40c | 83.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 69.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21a1…2f95backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a3…1f8fbacked No | 49c | 40.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6520…cf00backed No | 64c | 38.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked No | 39c | 37.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 110 | 16.4%18 W · 92 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 29c | 35.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x663a…5c51backed No | 75c | 29.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…1812backed No | 63c | 28.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa95c…39abbacked No | 55c | 24.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…649fbacked No | 64c | 19.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…a2c2backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei tweet every day through March 27?this page
- Will Khamenei tweet every day through March 20?No won
- Will Khamenei tweet every day through March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.