Movies · resolved market
Will Marshall Curry - SNL50: Beyond Saturday Night win Best Director of a Documentary Series or News at the 78th DGA Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x512ff46418c45dbda5eb61323c57b0f06b2ba730cebee4e8d2d621b963bdae49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,475
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,588
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,475 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb0b1…4336backed Yes | 64c | 988$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…b3c2backed Yes | 63c | 879$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.77 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5885…6562backed Yes | 68c | 805$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.4 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf666…8842backed Yes | 65c | 771$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.15 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c51…a829backed No | 35c | 748$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b2…9ae2backed No | 36c | 549$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.46 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e17…0d52backed No | 37c | 501$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.63 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a8…9b29backed Yes | 69c | 480$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.2 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa5…2380backed No | 31c | 480$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7166…f815backed No | 35c | 442$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6537…fcecbacked Yes | 65c | 442$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9778…1d7bbacked No | 32c | 431$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.08 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…7572backed No | 36c | 421$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.44 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed No | 32c | 374$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.32 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -55%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…bf74backed Yes | 38c | 361$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.18 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb50c…8c30backed No | 62c | 361$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.18 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…4bffbacked Yes | 69c | 351$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.19 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45ff…bab6backed Yes | 38c | 342$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.96 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…293cbacked No | 62c | 342$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 71c | 308.22$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.35 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5661…ef17backed No | 31c | 204$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.76 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6a…21c3backed No | 37c | 194$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xead6…911fbacked No | 37c | 184$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5880…a675backed No | 31c | 147$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.43 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6368…d45ebacked No | 77c | 129.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c3…36eebacked No | 20c | 93.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.18 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.47per pick | 33cpaid | +151.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadd5…57eebacked Yes | 60c | 82$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 43c | 37.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 68c | 34.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9c…6216backed No | 47c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef37…f2bcbacked No | 36c | 28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f09…f1c3backed Yes | 80c | 21.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 64c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Marshall Curry - SNL50: Beyond Saturday Night win Best Director of a Documentary Series or News at the 78th DGA Awards?this page
- Will Alexandria Stapleton - Sean Combs: The Reckoning win Best Director of a Documentary Series or News at the 78th DGA Awards?No won
- Will Matt Wolf - Pee-wee as Himself win Best Director of a Documentary Series or News at the 78th DGA Awards?No won
- Will Rebecca Miller - Mr. Scorsese win Best Director of a Documentary Series or News at the 78th DGA Awards?Yes won
- Will Susan Lacy and Jessica Levin - Billy Joel: And So It Goes win Best Director of a Documentary Series or News at the 78th DGA Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.