Weather · resolved market
Will Seattle have between 6 and 7 inches of precipitation in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c18d5de10fc6af005528601ce74a96b24d7582e5736f5894e5d628663d4d002
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,803
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,632
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,803 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a7d…d9fcbacked Yes | 46c | 1,669$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 7c | 1,326$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.65 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc04c…44ffbacked Yes | 11c | 999$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.89 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12e3…dbd4backed No | 54c | 938$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.36 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…44acbacked Yes | 11c | 915$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.57 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd96e…1ea6backed No | 54c | 897$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.41 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb976…c213backed Yes | 11c | 841$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…1796backed Yes | 46c | 822$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.76 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61a8…f658backed Yes | 46c | 794$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.83 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…4bffbacked No | 54c | 768$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.05 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca87…3701backed No | 54c | 732$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.45 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…87bfbacked Yes | 39c | 561$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.23 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e79…e974backed Yes | 39c | 560$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.84 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…3ef8backed Yes | 11c | 555.18$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.69 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 7c | 518.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0574…e49fbacked Yes | 10c | 488.8$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8c…7026backed Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6891…1146backed No | 61c | 327$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb7…2077backed Yes | 9c | 324.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +98.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed Yes | 6c | 296$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 10c | 277.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes | 5c | 243.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 10c | 242.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…f4acbacked Yes | 5c | 229.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 220.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee9e…efb7backed Yes | 46c | 219$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.18 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b73…b9eebacked Yes | 9c | 213.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -65%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a87…353ebacked Yes | 6c | 212.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 6c | 173.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c2…ee44backed Yes | 8c | 169.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x290d…9e42backed No | 54c | 169$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.91 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…d5e4backed Yes | 14c | 157.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 7c | 156.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 52 | 5.8%3 W · 49 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | -43%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 29c | 141$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…e8d5backed Yes | 15c | 126.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf278…a69dbacked Yes | 38c | 104.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 13c | 82.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 17c | 76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa238…babcbacked Yes | 23c | 75.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc45…2957backed Yes | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed Yes | 21c | 58.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 41c | 31.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 63c | 21.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ef…0cf9backed No | 60c | 20.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a0…661ebacked No | 80c | 15.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Seattle have between 6 and 7 inches of precipitation in March?this page
- Will Seattle have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in March?No won
- Will Seattle have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in March?No won
- Will Seattle have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in March?Yes won
- Will Seattle have between 7 and 8 inches of precipitation in March?No won
- Will Seattle have less than 3 inches of precipitation in March?No won
- Will Seattle have more than 8 inches of precipitation in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.