Weather · resolved market
Will Seattle have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdb0f3c9b163f9ff663ff4b715e3f514bb55100831062eeb8433898a9cccffe7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $168,798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $285,623
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $168,798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe36c…a6f0backed Yes | 20c | 1,341$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 6c | 1,231$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.42 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…0da3backed Yes | 20c | 809$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…35e8backed No | 59c | 659$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.19 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe71…38d2backed No | 80c | 595$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +56%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c5…4c23backed No | 80c | 581$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.2 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…b5cebacked Yes | 20c | 570$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd29f…26b4backed Yes | 38c | 552$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.76 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…735dbacked No | 80c | 411$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed No | 80c | 410$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca87…3701backed No | 62c | 407$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.66 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd824…528bbacked No | 80c | 398$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 71c | 389.26$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.31 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0184…23f6backed Yes | 41c | 379$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.39 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7c…a11bbacked Yes | 20c | 293$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e7c…5a5fbacked No | 80c | 287$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa22e…109cbacked No | 80c | 283$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.6 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6f…469fbacked No | 80c | 283$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cb…933ebacked Yes | 20c | 267$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…be53backed Yes | 20c | 266$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…e8d5backed Yes | 7c | 263.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed No | 61c | 256$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.28 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6a…21c3backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 238.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed Yes | 18c | 236.36$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc04c…44ffbacked Yes | 41c | 192$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.72 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…e50fbacked Yes | 41c | 188$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.08 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +39%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf427…15e1backed Yes | 25c | 171.8$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f6…595cbacked No | 80c | 165$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0574…e49fbacked Yes | 37c | 153.22$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.31 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4805backed Yes | 20c | 123$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf907…e7dbbacked No | 80c | 123$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd137…ceacbacked Yes | 20c | 117$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 65c | 65.66$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 43.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 19.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked No | 70c | 19.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Seattle have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in March?this page
- Will Seattle have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in March?No won
- Will Seattle have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in March?Yes won
- Will Seattle have between 6 and 7 inches of precipitation in March?No won
- Will Seattle have between 7 and 8 inches of precipitation in March?No won
- Will Seattle have less than 3 inches of precipitation in March?No won
- Will Seattle have more than 8 inches of precipitation in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.