Weather · resolved market
Will Seattle have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x131e724bea68667c2d994a85e5903ab786bf716bd8af14541c0c319e6d6928d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,948
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4061…f5ebbacked Yes | 24c | 1,407$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.68 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 35cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc70…50c0backed No | 57c | 1,066$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.38 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91be…2641backed No | 76c | 1,039$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.36 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 3c | 997.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb74c…9c72backed No | 57c | 995$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.85 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29e2…6dc5backed No | 56c | 881.21$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7534…d51bbacked No | 76c | 875$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…891fbacked No | 79c | 868$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.28 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.9wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfd…946bbacked Yes | 24c | 764$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.36 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ec…46cebacked Yes | 43c | 711$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.73 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…bf74backed Yes | 43c | 689$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.27 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7321…1812backed Yes | 43c | 661$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.23 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…e8d5backed Yes | 9c | 633.55$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.24 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0574…e49fbacked Yes | 25c | 605.63$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.29 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…b75ebacked Yes | 24c | 591$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.84 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9e…bd49backed No | 76c | 480$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ec…62aabacked Yes | 44c | 458$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.52 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6a…21c3backed Yes | 44c | 431$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.64 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7407…19bebacked Yes | 22c | 409$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.98 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c09…28d0backed No | 78c | 409$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.98 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 7c | 349.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 345.07$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.12 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaef9…0acbbacked Yes | 24c | 333$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.92 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca87…3701backed No | 76c | 333$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.92 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b7…d913backed Yes | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 9c | 287.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbec…8dccbacked Yes | 21c | 286$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe71…38d2backed Yes | 21c | 282$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +56%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 13c | 275.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked Yes | 7c | 236.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 77c | 232.65$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.14 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8151…3421backed No | 76c | 226$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.24 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ce…3c8ebacked No | 79c | 188$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 17c | 164.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc03…cd5cbacked No | 76c | 142$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 10c | 141$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 12c | 135.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 80c | 121.72$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf8…ded2backed Yes | 21c | 109$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa238…babcbacked Yes | 32c | 81.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74b8…0c87backed Yes | 21c | 79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 77.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0680…db1bbacked Yes | 16c | 71.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +94%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe89…3ca3backed Yes | 21c | 66.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…d5e4backed Yes | 22c | 63.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a0…661ebacked Yes | 20c | 62.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed Yes | 20c | 62.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…c8b2backed Yes | 23c | 61.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be4…3128backed No | 54c | 56.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe131…7b22backed Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +151.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9f…b4e1backed No | 56c | 44.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 73c | 39.9$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd56e…b9a6backed Yes | 49c | 29.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Seattle have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in March?this page
- Will Seattle have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in March?No won
- Will Seattle have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in March?Yes won
- Will Seattle have between 6 and 7 inches of precipitation in March?No won
- Will Seattle have between 7 and 8 inches of precipitation in March?No won
- Will Seattle have less than 3 inches of precipitation in March?No won
- Will Seattle have more than 8 inches of precipitation in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.