Weather · resolved market
Will Seattle have less than 3 inches of precipitation in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x028fa2341b75d77a1e93cd2802331824bca65269ced1508978e2bb7a5838df3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7830…d754backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…e8d5backed Yes | 3c | 1,099$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a8…7efabacked No | 78c | 858$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.76 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.35per pick | 57cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc03…cd5cbacked Yes | 22c | 825$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9d…a002backed No | 78c | 628$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.16 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f3…e6aabacked No | 78c | 616$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.52 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed Yes | 22c | 524$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.28 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…85cdbacked Yes | 24c | 362$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.88 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e77…3273backed No | 76c | 344$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a8…0c57backed No | 76c | 343$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…92b3backed Yes | 22c | 341$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.02 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -85.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fd…a3e1backed Yes | 24c | 325$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…f98ebacked Yes | 22c | 293$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.46 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed Yes | 31c | 233.49$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.91 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 175.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 8c | 156.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed Yes | 23c | 130.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…8211backed Yes | 22c | 92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 86.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe131…7b22backed Yes | 25c | 78.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 16c | 68.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 17c | 64.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked No | 70c | 25.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…7678backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 73cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Seattle have less than 3 inches of precipitation in March?this page
- Will Seattle have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in March?No won
- Will Seattle have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in March?No won
- Will Seattle have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in March?Yes won
- Will Seattle have between 6 and 7 inches of precipitation in March?No won
- Will Seattle have between 7 and 8 inches of precipitation in March?No won
- Will Seattle have more than 8 inches of precipitation in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.