Weather · resolved market
Will Seattle have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78d78fa752ec5ac78d5080c5606d5eeaf09a6484d463d5cd44158bb8a2c1d95a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,257
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,980
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,257 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93ea…f16dbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8b…f985backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf427…15e1backed Yes | 62c | 2,039$1,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.43 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd96e…1ea6backed Yes | 22c | 1,211$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc536…589ebacked No | 78c | 927$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9774…6d3cbacked Yes | 17c | 684$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.04 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb25…5b6bbacked Yes | 30c | 595$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.12 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…3ef8backed Yes | 64c | 561.55$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.81 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 23c | 528.36$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.86 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 502.36$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.11 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0574…e49fbacked Yes | 9c | 449.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.13 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 13c | 384.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 16c | 306.21$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.57 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f5…d7aabacked No | 78c | 284$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.09 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe2…316abacked No | 12c | 269.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 13c | 268.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c43…c080backed No | 12c | 222.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…99f7backed No | 70c | 204$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a7…4d86backed No | 70c | 197$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.11 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4acc…9bdabacked No | 9c | 194.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…34e0backed No | 70c | 194$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.02 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 28c | 187.02$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.96 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 28c | 171.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.61 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 40c | 141$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.18 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf412…3120backed No | 12c | 139.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9c…d0cfbacked Yes | 28c | 138.88$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.23 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b1…a0e0backed No | 12c | 108.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 16c | 102.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.8 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 17c | 96.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…e8d5backed Yes | 22c | 82.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.15 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e63…0fffbacked No | 17c | 76.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…d5e4backed Yes | 16c | 69.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.19 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 33c | 54.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked No | 24c | 49.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d6…e222backed No | 36c | 49.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 66cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…050abacked No | 36c | 44.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…b1bfbacked Yes | 46c | 43.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…18c6backed Yes | 62c | 43.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b4…c3f4backed Yes | 71c | 42.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 60c | 31.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2789…9caebacked No | 60c | 24.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5be4…3128backed No | 68c | 24.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 73c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad42…c918backed No | 62c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ef…0cf9backed No | 73c | 16.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Seattle have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in March?this page
- Will Seattle have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in March?No won
- Will Seattle have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in March?No won
- Will Seattle have between 6 and 7 inches of precipitation in March?No won
- Will Seattle have between 7 and 8 inches of precipitation in March?No won
- Will Seattle have less than 3 inches of precipitation in March?No won
- Will Seattle have more than 8 inches of precipitation in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.