TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on February 15, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$132,043
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$113,915

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,043 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 212 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1f2a…58afbacked No0c12,750$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0317414.4%25 W · 149 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b67…aba0backed No0c6,223$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed No0c5,250$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.22282.6%6 W · 222 L+0.6wins0.00per pick2cpaid-42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6968…4ff5backed No0c4,200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+643.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d85…97e9backed No10c2,931$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.395728.1%16 W · 41 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c73…44f4backed No21c2,870$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.381163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x185f…3649backed No1c2,015$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8413918.7%26 W · 113 L-13.9wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-52.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x15f9…607ebacked Yes70c1,892$1,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.722634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb79f…d749backed No1c1,802$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.67660%0 W · 66 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No4c1,744$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.494928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc376…4a1cbacked Yes78c1,645$1,281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.084330.2%13 W · 30 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes60c1,618$976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641.8631344.1%138 W · 175 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d9c…2b63backed No1c1,531$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed No4c1,472$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6717740.7%72 W · 105 L+13.9wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+36%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x909f…a8c3backed No1c1,310$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.79862.5%5 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.40per pick23cpaid+233.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed No7c1,277$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.6212918.6%24 W · 105 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick12cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No6c1,134$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.4450130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No24c1,035$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.8958927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No4c960.3$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.87135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcf1…e06bbacked No41c923.07$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.9812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-42.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec92…1214backed Yes51c918$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.824542.2%19 W · 26 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No9c900.13$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.651,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc173…20f5backed No6c789.57$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.8521333.8%72 W · 141 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb60d…bfb5backed No43c774.53$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.69944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+45.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8e9…0dc9backed No1c771.2$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-58%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x184f…45a1backed No68c734.71$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-43.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x91ad…a5cabacked No21c728.5$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.991323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.22per pick45cpaid-53.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x0f5c…91bfbacked No49c700$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3432334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x367b…48dabacked Yes50c678$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3392653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb89e…d36cbacked No22c642.35$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No26c591.42$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.046825%17 W · 51 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes76c576.64$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.1435652.8%188 W · 168 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x89b2…0eb2backed Yes46c558$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.321442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bbb…986bbacked No13c523.38$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.952532%8 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-46.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7289…4bffbacked No50c513$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.5520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-66.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x67ac…fb20backed No45c504.72$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.344560%27 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6df…65b1backed No2c504.62$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1140%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No45c499.97$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.9936227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9078…26afbacked Yes41c473.86$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.6510533.3%35 W · 70 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x38c1…2f84backed Yes37c449$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.87560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+24.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes70c433.67$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.2277636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No4c432.42$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.034625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes48c400$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20813138.9%51 W · 80 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce8f…91a5backed No12c373.68$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No18c373.17$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.4989617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd22a…ac22backed Yes46c369$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.261154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6509…ab24backed Yes54c345.61$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.291233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+201.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64c9…6bdebacked No54c344$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.762050%10 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6286…f59cbacked No5c327.57$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0925518%46 W · 209 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-26.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xeb18…2372backed No63c316$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.081338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60a7…6d60backed No5c303.21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155942.4%25 W · 34 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No5c299$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7329254.8%160 W · 132 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3edb…5280backed Yes37c292.69$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.85862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+34.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15ae…2b33backed No4c285$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4511329.2%33 W · 80 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc140…ac80backed No43c279.96$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.781361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6560…e164backed Yes62c274.91$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.428452.4%44 W · 40 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes31c264.76$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.5713140.5%53 W · 78 L+13.4wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf65b…3588backed No57c262.21$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked No39c259.2$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10015629.5%46 W · 110 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick24cpaid-5.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3517…dab5backed No6c256.11$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.856725.4%17 W · 50 L-5.4wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-0.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4b72…cd8ebacked No54c256$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.242552%13 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes35c237.25$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.057226.4%19 W · 53 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-18.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No23c237.16$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.7134432.3%111 W · 233 L-31.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4252…4a6ebacked No63c233.67$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.212475%18 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+21.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbd08…2c93backed Yes66c233.36$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.938867%59 W · 29 L+15.2wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+72%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x46ef…b723backed Yes72c232.62$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.221533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf030…27bfbacked No8c231.62$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4111418.4%21 W · 93 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…11cfbacked No13c230.05$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes62c226.71$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.718243.9%36 W · 46 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22f2…90d7backed No49c218$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.824242.9%18 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2841…6015backed Yes62c216.81$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.491266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3983…4f1abacked No37c215.8$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee3b…657cbacked No47c214.72$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003834.2%13 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe95b…1f15backed No54c214$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.56742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7022…f64ebacked No23c210.95$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.019942.4%42 W · 57 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa322…28e9backed Yes47c210$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd139…71a5backed Yes47c210$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd464…0dd6backed Yes47c210$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc99…f59fbacked Yes47c210$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbaf…a85abacked Yes47c210$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+111.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb611…be25backed No53c210$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaea7…2057backed No53c210$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x594c…43e9backed No53c210$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc24b…c1e4backed No53c210$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x257f…a582backed No53c210$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4985…0413backed No53c210$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x494a…c135backed Yes47c210$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x385c…73eabacked Yes47c210$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+111.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa75b…4d60backed Yes47c210$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+111.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5dff…da9cbacked Yes47c210$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+111.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x106c…e094backed Yes47c210$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+111.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc8e…682ebacked No53c210$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f88…6f2ebacked No53c210$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa233…b85dbacked No53c210$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a66…5410backed No53c210$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca16…f878backed Yes65c203.16$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.36952.2%36 W · 33 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+21.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x79ac…9c87backed Yes79c200.87$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.47536%27 W · 48 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e34…63f7backed No8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.975364.2%34 W · 19 L+5.4wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No62c199.99$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.9964339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x426a…1376backed Yes65c194.4$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.193644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.