TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on February 9, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$239,722
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$243,576

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $239,722 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 305 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes72c11,106$7,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,108.0423839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f56…2a4cbacked No3c10,360$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.437226.4%19 W · 53 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-18.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked No19c9,696$1,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,794.1615629.5%46 W · 110 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick24cpaid-5.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked No5c7,503$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.6117414.4%25 W · 149 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5664…f163backed Yes75c5,502$4,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,391.134355.8%24 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fdf…cce6backed No0c5,291$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes77c4,879$3,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,105.0634440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes57c4,528$2,564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,963.6736750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9939…d3bebacked No4c3,973$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.767812.8%10 W · 68 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71c9…8072backed No69c3,506$2,419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,419.5850%4 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-29.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d85…97e9backed No28c2,987$831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$831.145728.1%16 W · 41 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No21c2,701$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.8189617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xec0b…69e6backed Yes42c2,280$967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,312.757751.9%40 W · 37 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x15ae…2b33backed No20c2,200$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.9311329.2%33 W · 80 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No9c2,178$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.694928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0479…f2ddbacked No34c2,139$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.32520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-67.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes78c1,855$1,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.688243.9%36 W · 46 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e49…cc2abacked No11c1,811$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No18c1,756$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.161,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No17c1,711$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.166825%17 W · 51 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3344…9175backed No12c1,599$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.8475%3 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.49per pick26cpaid+155.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8aaa…51dfbacked Yes53c1,587$835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.017938%30 W · 49 L+9.6wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+42.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf092…d0a1backed No19c1,531$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.36250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-23.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc976…0ad5backed No29c1,514$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.993534.3%12 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d22…da8bbacked Yes40c1,464$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$878.441931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick45cpaid+2.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed No11c1,448$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.1342329.1%123 W · 300 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No30c1,419$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.2715951.6%82 W · 77 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e80…f17abacked No27c1,417$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.29855.1%54 W · 44 L+24.9wins+0.25per pick30cpaid+76.8%equal weight72+0.20 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed Yes77c1,413$1,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.1438247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb6d8…3ce3backed No29c1,352$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf888…1c04backed No60c1,289$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.41338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x865d…47aabacked No35c1,229$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.68248.8%40 W · 42 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+32.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ea0…fcddbacked No3c1,210$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed No19c1,187$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.913138.7%12 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes66c1,129$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.7316046.3%74 W · 86 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes70c1,117$785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.3428438.7%110 W · 174 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x89a7…e7dbbacked Yes66c1,097$724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.989446.8%44 W · 50 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes38c1,080$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.3256336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No9c1,071$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.1750130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes75c1,056$793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.3242738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x711c…8495backed No14c1,000$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.088641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4be1…3feabacked No7c1,000$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652528%7 W · 18 L+4.5wins+0.18per pick10cpaid+333.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3c76…d4eebacked No16c933.98$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.132733.3%9 W · 18 L-5.7wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-42.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x81d7…f1b0backed No29c928.97$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.791338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No11c913.79$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.992384.6%11 W · 227 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-34.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe0cc…70babacked No39c897.05$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.41728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-42.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2488…c286backed No53c793.57$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.84141.5%17 W · 24 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-31.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x08b6…7db6backed No57c770.4$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.452755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6988…9f4ebacked Yes52c715.9$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.139942.4%42 W · 57 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-17.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b79…4f89backed Yes76c713.95$541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.014100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+100.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes70c682.05$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.599057.8%52 W · 38 L+11.2wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+44.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes66c656.24$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.1426429.2%77 W · 187 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes68c652.78$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.774862.5%30 W · 18 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb74c…b149backed No35c638.32$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.872650%13 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9147…f424backed No43c631.74$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.591050%5 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-28.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes76c630.18$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.4216041.9%67 W · 93 L+12.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+67.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xac76…9359backed No30c602.14$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.6526756.2%150 W · 117 L+12.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdaa5…23d2backed No14c595.9$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.58850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+30%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed No6c593.7$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5528734.5%99 W · 188 L+21.3wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+0.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd386…69cebacked No18c582.37$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x909f…a8c3backed No27c569.43$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.23862.5%5 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.40per pick23cpaid+233.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No13c543.9$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.454136.8%28 W · 385 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9774…6d3cbacked Yes37c527.19$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.131464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+24.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1427…145abacked No39c510.13$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.081764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x286d…37c7backed No4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.7wins+0.34per pick48cpaid+141.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed No5c500$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.91442.8%4 W · 140 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No7c499.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.37135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ed2…2082backed No31c497.58$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00dc…d521backed No47c490.63$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.79933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-50.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x32be…bac4backed Yes54c462.4$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.995952.5%31 W · 28 L+5.8wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcc49…db74backed No53c455.52$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.944047.5%19 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid+15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe92d…bffcbacked No59c450.42$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2652138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-23.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1edd…be0fbacked No45c429.81$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c77…6e76backed No24c424.69$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1041330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-52.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54bb…59c7backed Yes58c416.38$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.7616417.7%29 W · 135 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-53.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb964…b248backed No32c414.74$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1322548%12 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.12per pick60cpaid-24.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed No5c400$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.12476.9%17 W · 230 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa42a…d09ebacked No23c399.97$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.991266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf65b…3588backed No28c395.62$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5f9…9ad6backed Yes64c391.8$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.83969.2%27 W · 12 L+10.0wins+0.26per pick44cpaid+77.9%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes78c389.92$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.5213138.9%51 W · 80 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No17c386.31$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.3258927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11fc…8262backed No67c364.81$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.317636.8%28 W · 48 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1ec…5968backed No31c360.01$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.983636.1%13 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-31.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96e9…4b32backed No12c358.87$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.725461.1%33 W · 21 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x50a3…7c05backed No23c357.83$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.942060%12 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3337…30c2backed No28c350.61$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf96c…9014backed No10c334.5$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.453026.7%8 W · 22 L-4.4wins-0.15per pick41cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3a7d…98b6backed No5c331.65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e1b…4b36backed No59c330.98$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.43650%3 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-30.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x97ff…f76abacked No3c320.27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed No14c316.74$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1231344.1%138 W · 175 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3474…be04backed No66c314$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.24850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6787…8884backed Yes34c314$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.241656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+56%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x699d…5c8abacked No60c309.65$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a59…f2f0backed No43c309.21$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-51.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes38c308.98$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.3818151.9%94 W · 87 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x184f…45a1backed No65c308.95$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-43.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd08…2c93backed Yes63c301.46$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.758867%59 W · 29 L+15.2wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+72%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xb9f6…8683backed No24c301.41$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.