TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on February 23, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$46,645
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$51,610

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,645 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes17c3,358$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.677226.4%19 W · 53 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-18.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6098…c419backed Yes4c1,449$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.944511.1%5 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-42.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes2c1,374$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.431657.3%12 W · 153 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4924…f404backed Yes48c848$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.041540%6 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-26.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x427e…5ab4backed No55c820$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+43.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x15f9…607ebacked Yes33c777.77$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.662634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes1c762.6$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.354928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd907…f15fbacked Yes47c759$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.731241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3541…462ebacked Yes65c720.04$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.417732.5%25 W · 52 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67ac…fb20backed No50c609.09$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.094560%27 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4647…23aebacked Yes5c602.3$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303641.7%15 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa3f…6e13backed Yes44c595$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.81145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7e08…7e2ebacked Yes43c587$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.41944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid+1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes6c577.85$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4412023.3%28 W · 92 L+10.9wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+3.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf3bc…43e9backed No52c574$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.521060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x22f2…90d7backed Yes43c544$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.924242.9%18 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7252…9e6dbacked No67c505.25$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.293036.7%11 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1ab…56e8backed No57c481$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.831855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+46.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd7d…5bc1backed No53c476$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.721266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+42.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes2c455.13$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.251995%10 W · 189 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1be…d6a2backed Yes50c437.67$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2203933.3%13 W · 26 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6988…9f4ebacked No77c434.19$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.559942.4%42 W · 57 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-17.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes46c433.05$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20042329.1%123 W · 300 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No59c383.89$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.0464339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfce1…9f9ebacked Yes44c376$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.44966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+64.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6962…745ebacked No60c374.17$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.172642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x486b…3ea7backed No54c369$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.741346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde62…64f6backed No53c325$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.754100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+65.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f51…09adbacked No56c308$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.522161.9%13 W · 8 L+4.5wins+0.22per pick40cpaid+92.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x84f3…e6aabacked No57c285$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.551675%12 W · 4 L+3.4wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+40.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0ad5…6f41backed No52c274$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.521758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce65…66fdbacked No57c262$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.661457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c90…17fbbacked Yes43c262$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.66728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick37cpaid+15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8745…4805backed No57c259$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.372653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d38…e898backed No77c252$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.961844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe794…321cbacked Yes23c252$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.96955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No54c248.48$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.1720749.3%102 W · 105 L-23.0wins-0.11per pick60cpaid-24.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes14c230.46$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2658927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34a2…e80fbacked No44c227.12$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.121070%7 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+21.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No72c220.59$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.716825%17 W · 51 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x476e…00a9backed No43c216.96$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.421291.7%11 W · 1 L+3.5wins+0.29per pick62cpaid+50.2%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xac76…9359backed No67c200.07$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.5226756.2%150 W · 117 L+12.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x293b…c83bbacked Yes43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b74…93f7backed Yes46c200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923033.3%10 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-26.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbcb0…f77dbacked Yes50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003414.7%5 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-48.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79ac…9c87backed Yes49c195.97$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.037536%27 W · 48 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcd4…5b42backed Yes54c185.91$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004511.1%5 W · 40 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-84.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d4c…f7debacked No55c182.97$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.5862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes16c181.92$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6489617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f75…550abacked Yes56c177.93$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.49922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-36.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xafe3…1f2abacked No57c175.81$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.814100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb25f…a460backed Yes43c174.57$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.961741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+32.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc207…b24ebacked No74c168.89$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.896246.8%29 W · 33 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1056…5b18backed Yes45c157$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.653243.8%14 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes35c150$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5213138.9%51 W · 80 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204e…2925backed No76c141.07$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.751275%9 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+41.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d24…2e44backed No63c129.41$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.416735.8%24 W · 43 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-12.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed Yes43c126.85$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5410234.3%35 W · 67 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-15.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No74c115.38$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.8635652.8%188 W · 168 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd824…528bbacked No57c106$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.58683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick52cpaid+63.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc3cf…1e59backed No55c105.58$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.382751.9%14 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x367a…d7c0backed No42c105.23$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.641540%6 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca16…f878backed Yes62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.436952.2%36 W · 33 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+21.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4828438.7%110 W · 174 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x03c8…0e01backed Yes48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.147816.7%13 W · 65 L-0.3wins0.00per pick17cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes49c99.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.1485725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xf030…27bfbacked Yes14c99.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1411418.4%21 W · 93 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7022…f64ebacked Yes39c96.02$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.069942.4%42 W · 57 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x426a…1376backed Yes63c95.94$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.233644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06c2…23bebacked Yes47c95.05$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455244.2%23 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cc0…7ea2backed No53c94.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.343100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf532…b8fbbacked No55c91.24$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee2c…f08abacked No54c91$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.86333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick60cpaid-38.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd12b…43a9backed No64c86.76$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.451136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa726…7d9bbacked No65c84.62$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c18…192abacked Yes25c82.85$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+48.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes29c81.55$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2420035.5%71 W · 129 L-11.0wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-22.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes37c74.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.512227.9%34 W · 88 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1427…145abacked No70c73.58$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.271764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No48c71.31$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.2486542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x185f…3649backed Yes20c69.35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0913918.7%26 W · 113 L-13.9wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-52.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x35b2…8abdbacked Yes45c68.87$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312035%7 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xde58…4a92backed No69c65.33$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98fa…3528backed No71c65$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.851952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50e8…ac57backed Yes46c60$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.62759.3%16 W · 11 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes40c58.04$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1331728.7%91 W · 226 L-35.7wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-48.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x5177…1020backed No56c56.24$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.98742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick70cpaid-30.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xccad…46ecbacked No54c55.95$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.95771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+33.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3850…4c39backed No72c55.56$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.56966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+55.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86dd…1af2backed Yes43c52.98$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9816433.5%55 W · 109 L-19.0wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-32.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x056c…5066backed Yes21c51.55$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6713228%37 W · 95 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb297…d832backed Yes46c48.95$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f11…5ed0backed No41c48.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.786858.8%40 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15ae…2b33backed No59c45$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5511329.2%33 W · 80 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6034…b5fdbacked Yes47c42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.74933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafd8…9b9dbacked No58c41.55$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.553250%16 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9d6…3ae3backed No73c41.23$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.232171.4%15 W · 6 L+3.7wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+29.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x22b0…ef31backed No65c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149250%46 W · 46 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3c50…22fdbacked No55c38.28$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.221353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd268…5609backed No49c37$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192080%16 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+24.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.