Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 8, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8a7d7ced51ff0c00dee61e0a98d192db2f206f1eede15c8d2e1af5bab04d5cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,279
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,037
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,279 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 72c | 2,763$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.92 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe977…c4d7backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd17…f596backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x184f…45a1backed No | 71c | 706.51$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 17c | 704$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.68 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +15.0wins | +0.20per pick | 19cpaid | +102%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes | 62c | 646.73$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.8 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 23c | 616.83$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x4be1…3feabacked No | 7c | 614.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.18per pick | 10cpaid | +333.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes | 28c | 515.26$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.56 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked No | 23c | 500$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +24.9wins | +0.25per pick | 30cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 3c | 415.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed No | 19c | 409.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.1 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 13c | 382.7$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…2c93backed Yes | 53c | 375.57$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.57 | 88 | 67%59 W · 29 L | +15.2wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +72%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ec…5968backed Yes | 61c | 372$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.08 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 59c | 199.99$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.99 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…4a1cbacked Yes | 58c | 164.1$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.89 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8274…118dbacked No | 73c | 163.44$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.81 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5808…0c9dbacked No | 65c | 154.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2aab…3b61backed No | 67c | 151.55$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.13 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…97e9backed No | 38c | 137$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.06 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee65…5067backed No | 53c | 133.92$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.99 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8440…a714backed Yes | 35c | 126.58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.84 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1645…2ce6backed Yes | 40c | 126$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x376e…d654backed No | 57c | 113.54$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.85 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 24c | 104$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe17d…bfb5backed No | 62c | 103.4$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffe…4071backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9078…26afbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7e34…63f7backed No | 58c | 99.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23cd…78febacked No | 64c | 96.32$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…e6b4backed Yes | 42c | 93.18$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.14 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c24…b10ebacked Yes | 46c | 90.69$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.69 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -58%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa90a…da95backed Yes | 30c | 83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.1 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x738b…6dc9backed Yes | 58c | 81.08$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…14f5backed Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +9.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 54c | 73.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…0347backed Yes | 47c | 67.79$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb543…9961backed No | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76ae…2c6bbacked No | 55c | 54.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -8.6wins | -0.32per pick | 58cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2841…6015backed Yes | 42c | 50.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42d0…304dbacked No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c9…65f1backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…23aebacked Yes | 40c | 49.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 32c | 47.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8231…22e4backed Yes | 30c | 45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +11.7wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 59c | 41.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f35…7536backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa66…c9cbbacked No | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf633…c684backed No | 57c | 38.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 35c | 38.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb40…c647backed No | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 39c | 37.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf65b…3588backed No | 56c | 35.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…23bebacked Yes | 56c | 34.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0670…e300backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e2…6457backed Yes | 66c | 33.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357d…0897backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 67cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 45c | 29.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 124 | 33.1%41 W · 83 L | -12.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe151…6a5fbacked Yes | 69c | 26.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 39c | 26.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 91 | 25.3%23 W · 68 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71b3…9f1cbacked No | 71c | 22.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb32f…4f72backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3181…737abacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 8, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 17, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 19, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 2, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 3, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 5, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.