TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on February 19, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$62,688
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$67,045

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,688 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x25fd…e685backed Yes2c1,721$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.72425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-59.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes4c1,280$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.434928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c24…b10ebacked Yes9c1,227$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1114219%8 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-58%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes30c1,050$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.477226.4%19 W · 53 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-18.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c935.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.777135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3541…462ebacked Yes13c891.74$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.287732.5%25 W · 52 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e3e…0959backed Yes43c860$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.8728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-58.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf26…39a6backed No59c858.15$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.442250%11 W · 11 L+3.1wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+38%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xeab9…2ff1backed Yes44c790$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.61560%9 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+40.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf085…a01fbacked Yes45c738$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.12045%9 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7252…9e6dbacked No70c710.82$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.323036.7%11 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8fcc…8ef0backed Yes49c693$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.57450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8b5…3591backed No65c682.09$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.442528%7 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-31.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6988…9f4ebacked No57c665.87$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.889942.4%42 W · 57 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-17.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb2b…a065backed No57c576.23$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.78757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes5c563.41$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6212325.2%31 W · 92 L+15.2wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+1.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5243…a73cbacked No57c533$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.192326.1%6 W · 17 L-5.2wins-0.22per pick49cpaid-49.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes8c519.98$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.81879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33dc…a539backed No56c514$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.161421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3e4…e7f9backed Yes2c511.56$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103231.3%10 W · 22 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick20cpaid+71.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7635…9ae0backed No51c498$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.021154.5%6 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid+20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1cb…933ebacked No55c482$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.93246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2841…6015backed Yes51c467.7$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2371266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes62c466.61$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.818243.9%36 W · 46 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x409e…ad6ebacked Yes50c447.73$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.98616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.26per pick42cpaid-73.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1128…cfa5backed Yes12c428.8$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.95616.1%9 W · 47 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-44.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes19c426.5$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.076825%17 W · 51 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6dd…0347backed Yes14c414.27$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7028…e0e9backed Yes75c401.39$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.5514854.1%80 W · 68 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0aa6…e8b6backed Yes43c357.04$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.27633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8702…3c0ebacked Yes9c335.59$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick26cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7833…d56cbacked Yes33c331.97$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.112133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-39.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xff5d…4e58backed Yes42c323$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.661526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.23per pick50cpaid-49.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x97ed…28e1backed No58c323$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.661127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6098…c419backed Yes38c318.72$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.064511.1%5 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-42.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7215…7cb0backed Yes14c316.34$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-38.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa0f5…b750backed Yes43c303$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.291717.6%3 W · 14 L-4.5wins-0.27per pick44cpaid-60.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7d43…920fbacked No57c299.97$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.99666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes23c292.08$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.1736750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No68c278.89$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.8715951.6%82 W · 77 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x04bd…f2f3backed No34c271.85$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.656445.3%29 W · 35 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No77c270.85$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.0877636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94a6…4748backed Yes44c270.1$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120560%3 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick30cpaid+232.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b23…0d60backed No55c268$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.62055%11 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+35.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x60a7…6d60backed Yes39c255.32$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005942.4%25 W · 34 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x168b…230abacked No60c255.04$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.77742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8bb…27f9backed Yes16c252.11$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.461729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick35cpaid+6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb964…b248backed Yes45c249.36$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.932548%12 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.12per pick60cpaid-24.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d05…305bbacked No51c238$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.621421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.9wins-0.21per pick42cpaid-66%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc173…20f5backed No7c220$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.621333.8%72 W · 141 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x67ac…fb20backed No58c212.09$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.294560%27 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9934…6078backed No58c200$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$847548%36 W · 39 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9078…26afbacked Yes40c199.99$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010533.3%35 W · 70 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes32c198.32$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.9825339.5%100 W · 153 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7999…c5a4backed Yes43c197.27$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfa6…4eb6backed Yes51c195.55$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003429.4%10 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-38%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x367a…d7c0backed Yes10c190.55$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.211540%6 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdee0…b4a1backed Yes11c184.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.81728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-35.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf75…3880backed Yes42c184.6$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.5313321.8%29 W · 104 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-31.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x06c2…23bebacked Yes32c176.16$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575244.2%23 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6ef…095ebacked No56c172$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.681752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+21.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f39…5420backed No61c159.01$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.21580%4 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.38per pick42cpaid+94.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x96e9…4b32backed Yes37c152.08$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.275461.1%33 W · 21 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes18c151.59$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0350130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb25f…a460backed Yes40c151.35$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.971741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+32.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x15ae…2b33backed No15c150$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12711329.2%33 W · 80 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d4b…eedfbacked Yes35c143.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+7.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c93…6a5ebacked No69c135.83$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.066123%14 W · 47 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x62b1…a4c0backed Yes31c135$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4212227.9%34 W · 88 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8594…7eedbacked No75c132.54$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.547857.7%45 W · 33 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2ff…b8bbbacked No80c125.62$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.622100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54bb…59c7backed Yes37c124.95$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9816417.7%29 W · 135 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-53.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd08…2c93backed Yes52c111.89$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.258867%59 W · 29 L+15.2wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+72%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x1294…9151backed No56c104$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.761957.9%11 W · 8 L+3.2wins+0.17per pick41cpaid+21.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a1c…e455backed No78c101.12$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.21127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.9wins-0.26per pick53cpaid-61.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No50c100.48$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.8529254.8%160 W · 132 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed No77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2323839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa90a…da95backed No30c99.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703256.3%18 W · 14 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+38.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes35c99.98$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3685725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes33c93.12$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7313138.9%51 W · 80 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4647…23aebacked Yes47c91.49$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433641.7%15 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes24c91.44$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7531728.7%91 W · 226 L-35.7wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-48.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xa0b8…5127backed No71c90.74$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.492157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb701…59f7backed Yes27c88.74$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.771241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes35c85.04$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7613140.5%53 W · 78 L+13.4wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8ad2…e9babacked Yes39c83.62$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.643043.3%13 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+30.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes50c82$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4167841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7081…b068backed No30c80$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561643.8%7 W · 9 L+3.8wins+0.23per pick20cpaid+52.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcc49…db74backed Yes33c78.35$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.554047.5%19 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid+15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24e4…0c32backed Yes39c76.92$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302045%9 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f11…5ed0backed No45c75$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.256858.8%40 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11fc…8262backed No59c70.24$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.847636.8%28 W · 48 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aba…9ddfbacked No60c69.65$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.65683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick58cpaid+25.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf049…8b3ebacked Yes30c66.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick38cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde4a…20cbbacked No62c64.52$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.52933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-37.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6318…12e4backed No58c64.19$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.964100%4 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+113.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd356…963dbacked Yes51c59.35$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303070%21 W · 9 L+8.9wins+0.30per pick40cpaid+96.6%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x15f9…607ebacked Yes38c55.55$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.312634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5352…e20ebacked No34c55$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.51650%8 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+43%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1b37…8722backed No22c55$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.92832.1%9 W · 19 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+35.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.