TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on February 13, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$174,728
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$152,223

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $174,728 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 198 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdecf…c4b7backed Yes5c4,645$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf920…2febbacked Yes1c3,970$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.22520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-58%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9939…d3bebacked Yes2c3,677$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.967812.8%10 W · 68 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c3,619$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.361,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4c4…6dfdbacked Yes7c3,356$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.051428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes3c3,041$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.094928.7%43 W · 449 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x483a…8832backed Yes11c3,000$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.631323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-21%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes12c2,578$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.086825%17 W · 51 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f64…a2e0backed Yes4c2,498$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.35867%6 W · 80 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-23.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d85…97e9backed Yes18c2,472$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.225728.1%16 W · 41 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c28…fc1abacked Yes19c2,099$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.54825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-40.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes2c2,081$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.31879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes12c1,780$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2058243.9%36 W · 46 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c1,774$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.557135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes5c1,770$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.456336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes14c1,507$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.1458927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes6c1,475$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.4512023.3%28 W · 92 L+10.9wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+3.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x99bd…af16backed Yes6c1,449$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.71330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79ac…9c87backed Yes53c1,411$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.187536%27 W · 48 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f58…5ff2backed Yes6c1,300$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$846944.9%31 W · 38 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes21c1,277$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.147226.4%19 W · 53 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-18.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb79f…d749backed Yes1c1,232$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.94660%0 W · 66 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31e6…0f21backed Yes2c1,100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1712330.1%37 W · 86 L+8.4wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes21c1,077$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.1789617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4647…23aebacked Yes3c1,056$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303641.7%15 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x303d…a1c9backed Yes4c1,020$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361225%3 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-50.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6ea…b02abacked Yes15c1,002$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.7810513.3%14 W · 91 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb13c…4af2backed Yes31c1,000$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34ec…b7cfbacked No69c1,000$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3101100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5f9…9ad6backed Yes5c999.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503969.2%27 W · 12 L+10.0wins+0.26per pick44cpaid+77.9%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No74c803.43$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.915951.6%82 W · 77 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0371…70c3backed Yes5c800.98$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.433429.4%10 W · 24 L+3.1wins+0.09per pick20cpaid+20.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes4c800$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.44625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x367b…48dabacked No53c794$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.182653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c86…b75ebacked Yes48c775$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3721936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5395…9d41backed Yes48c772$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.561258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick43cpaid+58.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e79…e974backed Yes46c758$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.681566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+36%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6f2…4f2abacked Yes5c737.87$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9330%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes6c736.27$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.914136.8%28 W · 385 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes2c709.89$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.991995%10 W · 189 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6388…f668backed Yes32c701$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.32450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+71.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5a3…13a7backed Yes3c681.01$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.62725.9%7 W · 20 L+5.5wins+0.20per pick6cpaid+168.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x89b2…0eb2backed No52c639$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.721442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d22…da8bbacked Yes38c624$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.121931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick45cpaid+2.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe2e0…ad86backed Yes47c558$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.261338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca87…3701backed Yes47c552.15$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.511361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+35.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe13b…c6fabacked Yes20c544.07$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1111353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes3c534.26$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.393717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56c6…05b3backed Yes4c530.26$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3230%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd134…5558backed No54c489$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.941643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes9c478.59$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.062476.9%17 W · 230 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a58…28bebacked Yes22c457.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d2c…6342backed Yes12c454.4$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7a8…7efabacked No52c453$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.441172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+51.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2aab…3b61backed Yes48c451.59$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.351931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-40.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe72c…bbf0backed No52c450$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2161747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No56c443$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.3829254.8%160 W · 132 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcde9…d705backed No62c441$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.58944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7028…e0e9backed No71c425.34$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.3514854.1%80 W · 68 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0aa6…e8b6backed Yes15c422.23$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf04…11e3backed Yes4c417.92$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick5cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes72c414.76$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30042329.1%123 W · 300 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes9c399.72$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.791477.5%11 W · 136 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+31.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6286…f59cbacked Yes24c367.78$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8825518%46 W · 209 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-26.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe4d9…2a4ebacked Yes48c351$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.481741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf65b…3588backed No57c350.53$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.531040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb920…3db4backed Yes4c347.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes61c346.05$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.1731344.1%138 W · 175 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb866…7331backed Yes4c328.96$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57ab…434bbacked No68c327$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.641637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe33b…6de8backed Yes13c317.27$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.571154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+23.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1413…36dfbacked Yes52c314.99$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.8966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7769…9991backed Yes9c308.55$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.77825%2 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+317.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfa6…4eb6backed No64c307.4$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.453429.4%10 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-38%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5eb3…0747backed Yes20c300$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9078…26afbacked Yes16c295.16$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4810533.3%35 W · 70 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d29…16bdbacked Yes24c289.81$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711060%6 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+31.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x104d…4a52backed Yes5c281.79$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5100%0 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x54bb…59c7backed Yes33c267.59$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8816417.7%29 W · 135 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-53.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1ec…5968backed Yes35c266.44$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943636.1%13 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-31.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fc9…63b2backed Yes41c265.48$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101978.9%15 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick70cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6ee…9238backed No53c255$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.85944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick61cpaid-35.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes26c228.57$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.610913.8%15 W · 94 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-42.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4f3…be1dbacked No68c227$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.641844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+86.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b45…836ebacked No53c222$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.342259.1%13 W · 9 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+29.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa04f…15babacked No52c220$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.6922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-60.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x15ae…2b33backed No40c220$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.111329.2%33 W · 80 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a6f…deaebacked No54c207$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.22944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed Yes45c204.01$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.4938247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked No46c200.08$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.5329653.7%159 W · 137 L+20.2wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+104.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes35c200$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.8613138.9%51 W · 80 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7999…c5a4backed Yes37c194.66$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25fd…e685backed Yes49c191.85$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.55425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-59.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c24…b10ebacked Yes22c189.24$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414219%8 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-58%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes14c185.81$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4720035.5%71 W · 129 L-11.0wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-22.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes40c176.94$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.3847334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdf4…5ce0backed No53c170.2$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8544…3d33backed No59c168.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.251060%6 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x618a…8510backed Yes24c163.71$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0de…fc0dbacked Yes19c162.33$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.97560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+86.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.