TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on February 2, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$172,763
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$187,198

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $172,763 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 224 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3c7a…1df6backed Yes46c10,000$4,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,599.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-27.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5664…f163backed No77c7,191$5,526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,664.774355.8%24 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71c9…8072backed No71c4,085$2,898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,187.33850%4 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-29.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x03e1…006fbacked Yes73c3,790$2,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,772.2220%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec0b…69e6backed No16c3,501$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,949.067751.9%40 W · 37 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes11c3,008$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.167226.4%19 W · 53 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-18.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc976…0ad5backed No28c2,350$653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,696.453534.3%12 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4be1…3feabacked No2c2,275$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,236.452528%7 W · 18 L+4.5wins+0.18per pick10cpaid+333.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes52c2,207$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,149.5642738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c1,806$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.167135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71f6…c0efbacked Yes75c1,714$1,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,285714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-80.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed Yes74c1,707$1,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,268.6838247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf5f9…9ad6backed Yes22c1,315$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2933969.2%27 W · 12 L+10.0wins+0.26per pick44cpaid+77.9%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x7a0d…ff14backed No31c1,260$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865.7113950.4%70 W · 69 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c7…de48backed No60c1,256$758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.4922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.30per pick52cpaid-52.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbd08…2c93backed Yes71c1,212$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$860.368867%59 W · 29 L+15.2wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+72%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x7289…4bffbacked Yes32c1,211$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.52520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-66.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x15ae…2b33backed Yes6c1,140$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5111329.2%33 W · 80 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32be…bac4backed No28c1,108$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$799.25952.5%31 W · 28 L+5.8wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8b92…7585backed No68c1,029$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.282441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb391…0325backed Yes29c957.27$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.74447.7%21 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29e2…6dc5backed No68c932$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.24862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No50c915.11$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46215951.6%82 W · 77 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x18b9…a226backed Yes36c910.97$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.695540%22 W · 33 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8374…9149backed Yes17c908.98$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.517938%30 W · 49 L+0.3wins0.00per pick38cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes1c907.63$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.047611.8%9 W · 67 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes55c904.46$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.8228438.7%110 W · 174 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc49…db74backed No52c837.88$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.714047.5%19 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid+15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes7c813.73$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.426825%17 W · 51 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x909f…a8c3backed No20c803.21$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641.57862.5%5 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.40per pick23cpaid+233.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes7c801.96$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.891,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes4c800$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.22476.9%17 W · 230 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x695c…10a1backed Yes7c749.94$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.1520243.1%87 W · 115 L+30.9wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+39.1%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x50e8…ac57backed Yes36c748$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.282759.3%16 W · 11 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes56c711.41$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.5423839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes3c699.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.11477.5%11 W · 136 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+31.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1424…2c7fbacked Yes6c668.58$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.525731.6%18 W · 39 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick26cpaid-8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes5c656.89$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.791879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70d5…3a73backed No64c614$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.04580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+36.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes4c600$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.11442.8%4 W · 140 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes25c586.79$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.736750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6988…9f4ebacked No46c541.08$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.869942.4%42 W · 57 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-17.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e38…1b55backed No77c531.15$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.311435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x297a…92e0backed No24c508.7$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.17741.6%32 W · 45 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89a7…e7dbbacked No50c505.37$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.169446.8%44 W · 50 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x983c…385dbacked Yes67c505.34$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3406240.3%25 W · 37 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No23c504.42$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.4430649%150 W · 156 L+77.8wins+0.25per pick24cpaid+105.8%equal weight76+0.24 edge/pick
0x7656…194bbacked No26c484.63$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.6210861.1%66 W · 42 L+19.1wins+0.18per pick43cpaid+62%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xc3e4…e7f9backed Yes25c475$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.063231.3%10 W · 22 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick20cpaid+71.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x58fe…a8c5backed Yes32c473$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.36540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-33.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb555…83e5backed Yes32c459$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.881258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick39cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7999…c5a4backed Yes44c450.83$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes5c400$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.54625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x420e…e3c9backed No27c399.92$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.9218738%71 W · 116 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x738b…6dc9backed Yes38c396.94$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15210246.1%47 W · 55 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac76…9359backed No32c383.24$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.8926756.2%150 W · 117 L+12.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes33c371.55$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1228243.9%36 W · 46 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3aa…14dcbacked Yes43c362.16$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1571520%3 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-50.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0cc…70babacked No39c355.78$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.29728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-42.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2488…c286backed No36c353.45$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.474141.5%17 W · 24 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-31.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes7c349.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.556336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0a4a…e049backed No73c338.21$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.33450%17 W · 17 L+8.2wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+98.5%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x310d…bed0backed No30c324.08$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.86944.9%31 W · 38 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb875…dabbbacked No63c316.3$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.3742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed Yes39c300$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11728734.5%99 W · 188 L+21.3wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+0.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes25c296$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.7542329.1%123 W · 300 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No36c293.77$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.3558927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10bc…76bebacked Yes19c286.36$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.291741.2%7 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick29cpaid+19.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x46e2…f8bbbacked No51c284.67$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.0310945.9%50 W · 59 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb9b…62ccbacked Yes15c269.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.57726%20 W · 57 L+6.5wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-19.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes59c268.59$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.2531344.1%138 W · 175 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x854d…6f9dbacked Yes45c267.02$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc210…8b21backed Yes9c264.43$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.83941%16 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9fa…315fbacked Yes41c250$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.52050%10 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x865d…47aabacked No54c246.3$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.38248.8%40 W · 42 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+32.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed No37c244.34$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.23138.7%12 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17f1…1796backed Yes66c242.3$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.4430%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x29e9…fec1backed Yes36c241.49$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-52.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed No44c240.87$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.4416447.6%78 W · 86 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1ec…5968backed No54c237.56$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.283636.1%13 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-31.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9939…d3bebacked Yes24c218.88$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.77812.8%10 W · 68 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe937…d46abacked Yes34c213.39$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.47140.8%29 W · 42 L+7.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+112.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3167…f43cbacked Yes62c212.53$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.644951%25 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9934…6078backed No58c211.54$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.867548%36 W · 39 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x382c…a0d7backed Yes66c210$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.893625%9 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26dd…52a6backed No51c209.78$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.831566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c76…d4eebacked No72c205.12$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.62733.3%9 W · 18 L-5.7wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-42.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7e80…f17abacked No31c204.15$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.749855.1%54 W · 44 L+24.9wins+0.25per pick30cpaid+76.8%equal weight72+0.20 edge/pick
0x11fc…8262backed No55c201.28$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.297636.8%28 W · 48 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes33c200$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6513140.5%53 W · 78 L+13.4wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf58b…5f34backed No55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9015643.6%68 W · 88 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb89…9469backed No27c199.99$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.996546.2%30 W · 35 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7277…ab80backed No51c199.99$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$981330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.19per pick50cpaid-37%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes10c196.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.654195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1fe…2a09backed No12c188.86$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+721.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd628…a698backed No67c180.21$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.211942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-37.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x31e6…0f21backed Yes8c179.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.412330.1%37 W · 86 L+8.4wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4d85…97e9backed Yes72c178$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.285728.1%16 W · 41 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab77…da8bbacked No56c177.55$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.55771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ed4…c624backed No61c173.94$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.941172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.