Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 2, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7afc461d2bb0a83f06ec2a146a6ad337815c6d7a9a55a5729f6ff728167289a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $172,763
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $187,198
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $172,763 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 224 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c7a…1df6backed Yes | 46c | 10,000$4,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,599.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5664…f163backed No | 77c | 7,191$5,526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,664.77 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c9…8072backed No | 71c | 4,085$2,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,187.33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…006fbacked Yes | 73c | 3,790$2,772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,772.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec0b…69e6backed No | 16c | 3,501$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,949.06 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f56…2a4cbacked Yes | 11c | 3,008$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.16 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc976…0ad5backed No | 28c | 2,350$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,696.45 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be1…3feabacked No | 2c | 2,275$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,236.45 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.18per pick | 10cpaid | +333.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 52c | 2,207$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,149.56 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,806$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…c0efbacked Yes | 75c | 1,714$1,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,285 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 74c | 1,707$1,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,268.68 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f9…9ad6backed Yes | 22c | 1,315$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +10.0wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 31c | 1,260$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.71 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c7…de48backed No | 60c | 1,256$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 52cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…2c93backed Yes | 71c | 1,212$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.36 | 88 | 67%59 W · 29 L | +15.2wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +72%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…4bffbacked Yes | 32c | 1,211$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed Yes | 6c | 1,140$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.51 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32be…bac4backed No | 28c | 1,108$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.2 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b92…7585backed No | 68c | 1,029$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.28 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb391…0325backed Yes | 29c | 957.27$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.7 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29e2…6dc5backed No | 68c | 932$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.24 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 50c | 915.11$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18b9…a226backed Yes | 36c | 910.97$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.69 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed Yes | 17c | 908.98$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.51 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 1c | 907.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 55c | 904.46$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.82 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc49…db74backed No | 52c | 837.88$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.71 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 7c | 813.73$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.42 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x909f…a8c3backed No | 20c | 803.21$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.57 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.40per pick | 23cpaid | +233.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 801.96$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.89 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 800$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed Yes | 7c | 749.94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…ac57backed Yes | 36c | 748$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.28 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 56c | 711.41$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.54 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 3c | 699.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1424…2c7fbacked Yes | 6c | 668.58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.52 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 5c | 656.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70d5…3a73backed No | 64c | 614$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.04 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 4c | 600$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 25c | 586.79$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.7 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6988…9f4ebacked No | 46c | 541.08$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.86 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e38…1b55backed No | 77c | 531.15$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.31 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 24c | 508.7$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.1 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked No | 50c | 505.37$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.16 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x983c…385dbacked Yes | 67c | 505.34$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 23c | 504.42$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.44 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked No | 26c | 484.63$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.62 | 108 | 61.1%66 W · 42 L | +19.1wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +62%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…e7f9backed Yes | 25c | 475$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.06 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 20cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58fe…a8c5backed Yes | 32c | 473$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…83e5backed Yes | 32c | 459$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.88 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…c5a4backed Yes | 44c | 450.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed No | 27c | 399.92$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.92 | 187 | 38%71 W · 116 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x738b…6dc9backed Yes | 38c | 396.94$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 32c | 383.24$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.89 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes | 33c | 371.55$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3aa…14dcbacked Yes | 43c | 362.16$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cc…70babacked No | 39c | 355.78$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.29 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2488…c286backed No | 36c | 353.45$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.47 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 7c | 349.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…e049backed No | 73c | 338.21$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.3 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +8.2wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +98.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x310d…bed0backed No | 30c | 324.08$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.8 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…dabbbacked No | 63c | 316.3$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 39c | 300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 25c | 296$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.75 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 36c | 293.77$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.35 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…76bebacked Yes | 19c | 286.36$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.29 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46e2…f8bbbacked No | 51c | 284.67$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.03 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…62ccbacked Yes | 15c | 269.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 59c | 268.59$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.25 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x854d…6f9dbacked Yes | 45c | 267.02$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…8b21backed Yes | 9c | 264.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9fa…315fbacked Yes | 41c | 250$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked No | 54c | 246.3$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.3 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed No | 37c | 244.34$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.2 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…1796backed Yes | 66c | 242.3$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29e9…fec1backed Yes | 36c | 241.49$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 44c | 240.87$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.44 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ec…5968backed No | 54c | 237.56$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.28 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9939…d3bebacked Yes | 24c | 218.88$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked Yes | 34c | 213.39$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.4 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3167…f43cbacked Yes | 62c | 212.53$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.64 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed No | 58c | 211.54$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.86 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…a0d7backed Yes | 66c | 210$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.89 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…52a6backed No | 51c | 209.78$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.83 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…d4eebacked No | 72c | 205.12$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -5.7wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked No | 31c | 204.15$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.74 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +24.9wins | +0.25per pick | 30cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 55c | 201.28$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.29 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f5…8f3cbacked Yes | 33c | 200$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…5f34backed No | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…9469backed No | 27c | 199.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.99 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7277…ab80backed No | 51c | 199.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -37%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 10c | 196.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fe…2a09backed No | 12c | 188.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +721.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…a698backed No | 67c | 180.21$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.21 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31e6…0f21backed Yes | 8c | 179.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…97e9backed Yes | 72c | 178$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.28 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab77…da8bbacked No | 56c | 177.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.55 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed4…c624backed No | 61c | 173.94$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.94 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 2, 2026?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 1, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 14, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 16, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 17, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 19, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 20, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 24, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 3, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 5, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on February 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.